Asian League · resolved market
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa778558e9026f40ee98434d9948ecdd7b48c559b1ccca5cb111cfca49aea604e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 3,978$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150.46 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 51c | 1,377$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 51c | 1,265$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.44 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 49c | 800$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 42c | 744.75$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.06 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 59c | 512$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.08 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 50c | 457$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.5 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 43c | 417.13$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 49c | 361.06$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.92 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf879…820ebacked Over | 25c | 282.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +74%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Under | 50c | 249.02$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e4…e722backed Over | 74c | 236.49$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d3…bb0abacked Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…bca7backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 48c | 197.91$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.65 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 46c | 196.16$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 44c | 192.8$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 47c | 159.28$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 50c | 144.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…e3c2backed Under | 35c | 143.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 135.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Under | 51c | 117.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 110.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 36c | 98.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 75c | 91.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5671…97c9backed Over | 65c | 84.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 53c | 71.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 50c | 62.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Over | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…43f7backed Over | 76c | 61.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 33c | 61.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…e71cbacked Over | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Under | 54c | 57.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 54c | 47.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…3dadbacked Under | 67c | 46.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 53c | 45.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 53c | 45.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2413…2442backed Under | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 49c | 40.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 39.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 53c | 38.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 51c | 38.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 50c | 38.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 58c | 33.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15bb…3bc7backed Over | 70c | 31.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…dcf5backed Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 54c | 26.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked Over | 76c | 24.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…380cbacked Under | 48c | 23.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f5…5107backed Over | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8b…0420backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0356…5273backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 70c | 19.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 75 | 74.7%56 W · 19 L | +13.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Under | 52c | 19.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 53 | 73.6%39 W · 14 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5this page
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.