Asian League · resolved market
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc52611f27798ec9ab71aaca295a80def814cd7857c0e1f06927764153387ab03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 40c | 4,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.98 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 68c | 3,149$2,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.06 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 23c | 2,249$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 72c | 1,810$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.17 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 68c | 1,744$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.94 | 1,319 | 56.7%748 W · 571 L | +64.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 19c | 699.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 74c | 445.3$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 1,357 | 45.5%617 W · 740 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 19c | 300$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 78c | 278.33$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 70c | 270.75$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 36c | 266.15$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 99 | 24.2%24 W · 75 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 41c | 252.56$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…896cbacked Under | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 70c | 187.71$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 40c | 98.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 23c | 77.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 28c | 61.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 74c | 56.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -13.1wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Under | 79c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…20b4backed Under | 75c | 27.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Under | 61c | 18.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 60c | 18.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 75 | 74.7%56 W · 19 L | +13.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 72c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,991 | 54.1%1,078 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5this page
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5Under won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.