Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2e59abdd668e0dc782a503342e4e50e036ff6e93ca59edb04e4b52c39420741
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Avispa Fukuokaof Cerezo Ōsaka, Avispa Fukuoka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Cerezo Ōsaka | 28c | 910.26$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.93 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Avispa Fukuoka | 72c | 899.9$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.97 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Avispa Fukuoka | 77c | 265.81$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Cerezo Ōsaka | 28c | 108.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Cerezo Ōsaka | 28c | 69.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Cerezo Ōsaka | 28c | 69.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e71…7913backed Cerezo Ōsaka | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Cerezo Ōsaka | 28c | 42.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cerezo Ōsaka | 28c | 41.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Avispa Fukuoka | 71c | 27.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Avispa Fukuoka | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 192 | 68.2%131 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…3e9fbacked Avispa Fukuoka | 74c | 27.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…1a0dbacked Avispa Fukuoka | 72c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed Avispa Fukuoka | 74c | 20.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Avispa Fukuoka | 70c | 19.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Avispa Fukuoka | 71c | 15.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6540…87e2backed Avispa Fukuoka | 72c | 14.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)this page
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5Under won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.