TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Spurs (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spursof Spurs, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$634,805
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$670,510

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $634,805 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 405 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed Spurs48c124,583$60,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,484.3969848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Spurs49c120,094$59,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,850.3987451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Timberwolves50c100,001$50,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,000.54,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Timberwolves51c62,000$31,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,62015952.8%84 W · 75 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Timberwolves52c38,000$19,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,76020758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Timberwolves50c25,769$12,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,884.41,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Spurs50c25,754$12,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,876.8125248.4%122 W · 130 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Timberwolves52c25,489$13,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,199.482,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1543…a222backed Timberwolves52c20,000$10,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,4001947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Timberwolves51c19,608$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00036549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Timberwolves42c13,668$5,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,72217441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Spurs50c13,634$6,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,817.211,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs58c13,088$7,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,550.468,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32f1…c96ebacked Timberwolves9c12,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.9911757.3%67 W · 50 L+9.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39cf…f964backed Timberwolves40c10,685$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3003243.8%14 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Timberwolves23c10,646$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50011034.5%38 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Spurs50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00090650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Spurs50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00063746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed Spurs49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,099.9812450.8%63 W · 61 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Spurs49c9,511$4,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,870.451,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Spurs48c8,871$4,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,595.6355251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Timberwolves49c8,662$4,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,252.528348.2%40 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b30…8ea8backed Timberwolves51c8,371$4,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,269.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Timberwolves50c8,219$4,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,109.5566248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Spurs50c8,073$4,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,036.7332351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Spurs50c7,600$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,80038143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Spurs48c7,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,64024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Spurs49c6,247$3,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,188.224,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Spurs48c6,142$2,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,193.692,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddd5…ec9ebacked Timberwolves52c6,140$3,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,192.81546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Timberwolves51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,06037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Timberwolves32c5,999$1,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,917.9514538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Spurs48c5,208$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,708.161,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Timberwolves52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6002937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7002…395cbacked Timberwolves52c4,808$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5003250%16 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Spurs74c4,704$3,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.82,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Timberwolves52c4,500$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,34017052.4%89 W · 81 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Timberwolves51c4,400$2,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,24418749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Timberwolves51c4,050$2,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,065.343,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Spurs50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00027546.2%127 W · 148 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e4e…1dfcbacked Spurs50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0003342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Spurs75c3,988$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.443269.2%299 W · 133 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x379a…5122backed Timberwolves51c3,922$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003030%9 W · 21 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-38.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Timberwolves52c3,500$1,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,82046145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Spurs50c3,500$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,75010553.3%56 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf003…08cdbacked Spurs50c3,400$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7001457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Timberwolves34c3,220$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.042,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d53…eb1abacked Timberwolves52c3,180$1,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,653.594362.8%27 W · 16 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Spurs50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Timberwolves51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53013355.6%74 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Spurs48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56022055%121 W · 99 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Spurs48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.9910248%49 W · 53 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd52…df69backed Timberwolves30c2,869$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.76636.4%24 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8d…95b0backed Timberwolves52c2,692$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4004245.2%19 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52f9…ad24backed Timberwolves51c2,430$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.234452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Spurs48c2,200$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.6462051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Timberwolves52c2,100$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0928756.3%49 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f36…2819backed Spurs49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.825242.3%22 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2efa…8a01backed Timberwolves51c2,031$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.86352.4%33 W · 30 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x503a…8322backed Timberwolves30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6005558.2%32 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+29%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Spurs49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02056453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c3a…a56bbacked Timberwolves52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0401968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3dc…eaa8backed Timberwolves51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Timberwolves51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040451.5%208 W · 196 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Timberwolves52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00016050%80 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Timberwolves52c1,920$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.411558.3%67 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e8a…a5bcbacked Timberwolves51c1,800$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9188242.7%35 W · 47 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Spurs50c1,746$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.711,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Spurs69c1,590$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.1593148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Timberwolves51c1,569$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002060%12 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Spurs48c1,540$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.681,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa97c…99e8backed Timberwolves44c1,488$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.53540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-47.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb845…ca23backed Timberwolves51c1,456$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.322634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1da3…2f94backed Timberwolves52c1,442$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7502850%14 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Spurs48c1,388$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.191,32249.9%660 W · 662 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Timberwolves51c1,364$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.4459140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Spurs48c1,293$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.4766352.6%349 W · 314 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Spurs48c1,199$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.47753.2%41 W · 36 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73f3…0d2cbacked Spurs49c1,133$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.657054.3%38 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Spurs48c1,121$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.5365045.1%293 W · 357 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Spurs48c1,105$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.186,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Timberwolves43c1,104$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.553,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6550…8451backed Spurs76c1,030$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.066437.5%24 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde1d…44a6backed Timberwolves52c1,019$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5303545.7%16 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Spurs50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50062948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Spurs50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50078445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf7…06acbacked Spurs50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50014640.4%59 W · 87 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Timberwolves51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51014334.3%49 W · 94 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeef3…0547backed Spurs49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51025550.2%128 W · 127 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc5b…5443backed Spurs50c996.8$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.412542.4%53 W · 72 L-11.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Spurs50c984.56$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.2814854.1%80 W · 68 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Timberwolves52c970$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.42878.6%22 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick66cpaid+22.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xec5a…2e90backed Timberwolves52c961.54$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfe6…fcc9backed Timberwolves52c951.92$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4951338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Timberwolves54c925.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50095452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf009…43d0backed Timberwolves11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Timberwolves11c900.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1149938.9%194 W · 305 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x246d…c74dbacked Timberwolves54c827.13$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc68d…e039backed Timberwolves52c821.15$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4271040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Timberwolves53c800$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.3373649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.