NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7668833132859a1b00c2d6fa0fa9ae39133ae4dec3a7c41ce7d2a5c8a6072a02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Timberwolves, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Timberwolves | 28c | 38,871$10,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,834 | 316 | 44.6%141 W · 175 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Spurs | 72c | 25,793$18,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,189.09 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Timberwolves | 1c | 18,723$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.75 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Spurs | 72c | 13,053$9,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,654.98 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b6…fa47backed Timberwolves | 28c | 5,521$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Spurs | 72c | 2,600$1,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Spurs | 72c | 2,316$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.48 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7434…2ff4backed Timberwolves | 28c | 1,951$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Spurs | 72c | 860$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.8 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e35…2614backed Timberwolves | 12c | 709.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Spurs | 72c | 618.46$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.17 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Spurs | 73c | 605.22$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.9 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Spurs | 71c | 391.77$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.88 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Timberwolves | 28c | 372$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.16 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Spurs | 72c | 292.21$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21e…0608backed Spurs | 80c | 248.63$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Timberwolves | 8c | 240$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Timberwolves | 26c | 199.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Spurs | 73c | 177.71$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 221 | 70.6%156 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…d5b0backed Timberwolves | 33c | 149.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344f…1a45backed Spurs | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…78a9backed Timberwolves | 36c | 138$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb3…8129backed Spurs | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…eef4backed Timberwolves | 38c | 131.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -9.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Spurs | 62c | 122.89$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Timberwolves | 16c | 101.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Spurs | 67c | 91.8$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 326 | 54.6%178 W · 148 L | +22.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Spurs | 74c | 90.28$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Spurs | 72c | 89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 348 | 50.9%177 W · 171 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Spurs | 72c | 72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb97…7ae1backed Spurs | 72c | 71.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f18…f384backed Timberwolves | 27c | 67.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Timberwolves | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…6a90backed Spurs | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Spurs | 71c | 55.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 367 | 49.6%182 W · 185 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Spurs | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Spurs | 73c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4373…6d1cbacked Spurs | 74c | 51.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Spurs | 74c | 47.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Timberwolves | 28c | 36.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -9.0wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x970f…f167backed Spurs | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…f4ffbacked Spurs | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Spurs | 68c | 18.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Spurs | 73c | 16.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb825…4114backed Spurs | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 16.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Timberwolves vs. SpursSpurs won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 104.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5Over won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.