NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Spurs (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16b53f7c6556616363aea2039d123a986037ce69244bac43d87f0aa82a76f5b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Spurs | 55c | 2,277$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.78 | 170 | 47.6%81 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Timberwolves | 44c | 1,075$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.03 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Timberwolves | 47c | 638.49$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…6ba5backed Spurs | 53c | 629.4$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Timberwolves | 48c | 628.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 290 | 40.3%117 W · 173 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed Spurs | 55c | 542.58$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.58 | 197 | 41.6%82 W · 115 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…c5a4backed Spurs | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Timberwolves | 45c | 371.26$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.78 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Spurs | 50c | 354.53$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.27 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Spurs | 51c | 275.74$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.11 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 180.37$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Spurs | 56c | 125.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Timberwolves | 44c | 105.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3048…057fbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Timberwolves | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 367 | 49.6%182 W · 185 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Timberwolves | 45c | 86.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Spurs | 54c | 62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…0fd1backed Timberwolves | 49c | 53.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…adaebacked Timberwolves | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d6cabacked Timberwolves | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 56.6%60 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x504b…b939backed Timberwolves | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Timberwolves | 46c | 42.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31d…df8abacked Timberwolves | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5345…666abacked Timberwolves | 50c | 39.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…6e69backed Timberwolves | 45c | 36.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Timberwolves | 46c | 36.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd367…9010backed Timberwolves | 50c | 32.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3d…58f5backed Timberwolves | 46c | 29.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Spurs | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Spurs | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Timberwolves | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 130 | 47.7%62 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-5.5)this page
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 16.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Timberwolves vs. SpursSpurs won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 104.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5Over won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.