NBA · resolved market
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x758d88681b7f40678333873f7623e11aa7c0b7cab13ff38ecd55b12c22192895
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c55…98ffbacked Yes | 55c | 5,500$3,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,474.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked No | 45c | 1,815$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.54 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked No | 45c | 1,333$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 277 | 46.6%129 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed No | 45c | 1,104$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.78 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6808…899bbacked No | 45c | 466.67$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed No | 45c | 137.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked No | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked No | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed No | 45c | 76.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 405 | 46.9%190 W · 215 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 16.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
- Timberwolves vs. SpursSpurs won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 104.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5Over won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.