TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,196,581
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,230,225

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,196,581 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 574 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed Cavaliers50c1,038,713$516,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521,768.9469848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Raptors50c534,918$267,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267,458.8487451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cavaliers51c287,920$145,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142,254.954,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Raptors49c268,401$131,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,516.572648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6d6…be17backed Raptors51c173,539$88,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,989.7710448.1%50 W · 54 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Raptors50c167,962$83,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83,980.978148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Cavaliers50c120,633$60,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,316.6320545.9%94 W · 111 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Raptors49c100,305$49,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,124.31,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Cavaliers49c63,154$30,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,208.643148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Raptors52c61,820$32,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,00042348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Raptors49c50,750$24,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,867.559347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Cavaliers50c40,015$20,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,007.7137627.9%105 W · 271 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Cavaliers50c35,000$17,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,50011864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Raptors50c28,950$14,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,5141,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Cavaliers50c28,762$14,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,400.9837355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed Cavaliers49c26,000$12,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,189.9810248%49 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Raptors50c25,000$12,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,50010530.5%32 W · 73 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Raptors52c24,326$12,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,579.3264948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked Cavaliers50c20,201$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,200.635036%18 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Raptors51c19,608$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0009945.5%45 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Cavaliers51c19,510$9,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,559.836549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Raptors50c16,447$8,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,223.281,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Raptors53c15,140$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00016846.4%78 W · 90 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Raptors51c14,706$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,50032351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Raptors50c13,180$6,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,589.831,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc181…6e97backed Raptors51c12,780$6,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,517.7850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers47c11,591$5,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,188.156,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1e…82c9backed Raptors50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0006243.5%27 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Raptors49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,899.9949244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Raptors51c9,804$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00090650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Raptors51c9,804$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00063746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cavaliers48c9,411$4,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,893.012,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Raptors54c9,333$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00017441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a84…8606backed Raptors50c9,244$4,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,622425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Raptors50c9,000$4,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,491.7757950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Cavaliers49c8,153$3,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,178.951,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Cavaliers50c8,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00012056.7%68 W · 52 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Raptors51c8,000$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,05032846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c10…6482backed Raptors51c7,510$3,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,830520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Raptors51c7,000$3,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,57017553.7%94 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed Raptors51c7,000$3,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,57020744%91 W · 116 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Cavaliers50c6,941$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,441.1811654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d5d…191dbacked Raptors50c6,573$3,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,286.65442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddd5…ec9ebacked Raptors50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ac5…cd3dbacked Raptors50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-34.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Raptors51c5,509$2,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,794.417358.9%43 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Cavaliers51c5,500$2,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6951,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8228…b2fbbacked Raptors50c5,376$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7004951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Raptors50c5,350$2,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,67537539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Raptors50c5,260$2,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,63048352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Raptors50c5,141$2,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,566.593,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Cavaliers50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked Raptors50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50014251.4%73 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Raptors50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50022041.4%91 W · 129 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24b3…a5a4backed Raptors54c4,593$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50011249.1%55 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb27…b180backed Cavaliers51c4,500$2,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,21511153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Cavaliers49c4,183$2,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,129.051,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Raptors72c4,101$2,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,945.1443269.2%299 W · 133 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Raptors52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08011558.3%67 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Raptors50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Cavaliers51c3,856$1,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,889.6759140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2734…6d9ebacked Cavaliers51c3,725$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,825.496144.3%27 W · 34 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb895…e4afbacked Raptors50c3,500$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7504445.5%20 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e01…0875backed Raptors51c3,137$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6003943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Raptors52c3,058$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,59012451.6%64 W · 60 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Raptors51c2,941$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50056453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45cf…0f46backed Raptors0c2,740$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.413042.3%55 W · 75 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6975…11c1backed Raptors55c2,700$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.983246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Cavaliers50c2,694$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.434850.9%177 W · 171 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x695d…60d5backed Raptors50c2,600$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3004264.3%27 W · 15 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+27%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Raptors58c2,572$1,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.763,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Cavaliers50c2,500$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Raptors49c2,500$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22550346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Cavaliers50c2,500$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25056843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Raptors50c2,400$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.9914854.1%80 W · 68 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b75…433bbacked Raptors51c2,353$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2002157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Raptors50c2,341$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.389447.9%45 W · 49 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Cavaliers62c2,054$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.130551.5%157 W · 148 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Raptors50c2,024$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.765045.1%293 W · 357 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b39…7fbcbacked Cavaliers50c2,020$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0106155.7%34 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Raptors50c2,010$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00530446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Raptors50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00016249.4%80 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Cavaliers50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00089853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cc…0b39backed Cavaliers50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0003953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc661…610abacked Raptors50c1,987$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.251921.1%4 W · 15 L-5.1wins-0.27per pick48cpaid-55.1%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x1333…e463backed Raptors55c1,971$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.054438.6%17 W · 27 L-6.2wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-30.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x73f3…0d2cbacked Raptors51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007054.3%38 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Raptors26c1,932$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011034.5%38 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9876…69f7backed Raptors51c1,919$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.061464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x007b…adc6backed Raptors52c1,714$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89214727.9%41 W · 106 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Cavaliers49c1,674$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.522,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45fa…f86fbacked Raptors50c1,648$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Raptors52c1,636$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.693148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Raptors50c1,591$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.192,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7110…b042backed Raptors53c1,555$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick50cpaid-56.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Cavaliers47c1,554$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.8566352.6%349 W · 314 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers40c1,553$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.758,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Cavaliers50c1,500$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75040243.8%176 W · 226 L-1.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Raptors50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75033945.1%153 W · 186 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Raptors50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75012247.5%58 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.