TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Cavaliers, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,664
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,779

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,664 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d03…9e27backed Cavaliers54c2,750$1,485 inLost-$1,4858532.9%28 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Raptors46c2,500$1,150 inWon+$1,35011452.6%60 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Raptors46c2,000$920 inWon+$1,079.7750346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Cavaliers54c1,350$729 inLost-$7293847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Raptors45c381.82$172 inWon+$2102,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6921…2345backed Cavaliers55c363.64$200 inLost-$20017041.8%71 W · 99 L-12.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bfe…9408backed Cavaliers54c278$150 inLost-$150.125637.5%21 W · 35 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-22.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Cavaliers53c226.04$120 inLost-$12036248.1%174 W · 188 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Raptors46c123.09$57 inWon+$66.4769848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Raptors46c111.11$51 inWon+$601,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc435…2494backed Cavaliers54c103.06$56 inLost-$55.652259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Raptors48c99.99$48 inWon+$51.9936749.6%182 W · 185 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6135…dc00backed Cavaliers54c64.81$35 inLost-$3520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x195a…b307backed Cavaliers54c46.3$25 inLost-$252955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Cavaliers54c41.24$22 inLost-$22.2743352.2%226 W · 207 L+19.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Raptors46c28.2$13 inWon+$15.2355444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e3a…7bdcbacked Raptors48c25$12 inWon+$134658.7%27 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3169…6dccbacked Raptors47c21.28$10 inWon+$11.286663.6%42 W · 24 L+8.8wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Cavaliers53c21.28$11 inLost-$11.2811864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.