TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

James Harden: Points O/U 20.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,356
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,417

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,356 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedf7…8f79backed No54c614.74$329 inWon+$285.691,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Yes47c606.73$286 inLost-$2861020%2 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-58.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Yes44c303.85$134 inLost-$13427746.6%129 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe768…b331backed No56c300$168 inWon+$13239864.3%256 W · 142 L+33.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x914d…41cabacked Yes51c283$145 inLost-$1456131.1%19 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No52c275.38$143 inWon+$132.7879650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed No49c242.25$119 inWon+$123.5576247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d93…b34dbacked Yes46c217.39$100 inLost-$1007146.5%33 W · 38 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No56c179.98$101 inWon+$79.1978652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ce8…fc49backed Yes44c152.62$67 inLost-$67.151741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked No60c136.67$82 inWon+$54.6717758.2%103 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d2c…cd4ebacked Yes47c106.67$50 inLost-$501560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed No54c102.22$55 inWon+$4721743.8%95 W · 122 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed Yes40c100$40 inLost-$4012347.2%58 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No48c71.06$34 inWon+$36.9590863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfae5…f940backed Yes45c54.55$25 inLost-$24.5539548.4%191 W · 204 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63a4…ef1abacked No55c54.55$30 inWon+$24.551172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+28.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5345…666abacked Yes46c49.74$23 inLost-$22.886942%29 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd755…61a1backed Yes25c40$10 inLost-$104037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No54c39.99$22 inWon+$18.496956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd071…b4dabacked Yes45c35$16 inLost-$15.759146.2%42 W · 49 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaebf…b45fbacked Yes46c34.91$16 inLost-$166547.7%31 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes44c34.09$15 inLost-$1527539.6%109 W · 166 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12c…9cc9backed Yes46c32.61$15 inLost-$15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed No54c28.91$16 inWon+$13.333556.7%190 W · 145 L+26.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e53…922dbacked No75c26.67$20 inWon+$6.674254.8%23 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x110d…cd01backed Yes46c23.91$11 inLost-$1134556.2%194 W · 151 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.