TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Evan Mobley: Points O/U 15.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,698
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,625

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,698 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedf7…8f79backed No40c723.01$292 inWon+$430.731,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd65c…9a48backed Yes60c415.52$250 inLost-$250771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+36.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed No41c235.46$97 inWon+$138.6276247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0fd…a91ebacked Yes59c210.17$124 inLost-$1249353.8%50 W · 43 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe1d…244bbacked Yes79c176.03$139 inLost-$139.45666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+921.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40a4…c6a9backed Yes60c175.97$106 inLost-$105.5810246.1%47 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No40c159.12$63 inWon+$96.2479650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd20b…3a20backed Yes59c122.77$72 inLost-$72.432142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No41c119.99$49 inWon+$70.843752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed No40c99.98$40 inWon+$59.9912347.2%58 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f39…28dabacked Yes58c86.21$50 inLost-$5011347.8%54 W · 59 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07a9…398ebacked Yes60c82.05$49 inLost-$49.23944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x25ce…a3f0backed Yes59c73.46$43 inLost-$43.341952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+23.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x628a…464abacked Yes58c50.73$30 inLost-$29.6330%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x63a4…ef1abacked No50c44.27$22 inWon+$22.271172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+28.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdffd…924fbacked Yes60c41.67$25 inLost-$2513949.6%69 W · 70 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b4a…d477backed Yes59c38.68$23 inLost-$2310560%63 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No65c34.57$22 inWon+$12.2621056.7%119 W · 91 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd071…b4dabacked Yes51c30$15 inLost-$15.39146.2%42 W · 49 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.