TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,539
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,607

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,539 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2aa1…70c5backed Yes53c1,638$868 inLost-$8683540%14 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-30.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No47c1,124$525 inWon+$598.941,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc04…1c43backed Yes53c1,029$550 inLost-$55010548.6%51 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x128a…a1b0backed No50c1,010$500 inWon+$510.15339.6%21 W · 32 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes50c841.81$421 inLost-$420.950346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked No47c580.13$273 inWon+$307.476147.5%29 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked No47c444$209 inWon+$235.3224949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No47c251.44$118 inWon+$133.2490863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed No47c237.49$111 inWon+$126.3576247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa995…3d50backed Yes53c207.55$110 inLost-$1105352.8%28 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ff2…5b93backed Yes53c163$86 inLost-$86.391163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed No47c115.3$54 inWon+$61.1140546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes53c95.71$51 inLost-$50.739618.8%18 W · 78 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f08…d224backed No47c72.23$34 inWon+$38.283125.8%8 W · 23 L-6.8wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-46.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No46c70$32 inWon+$37.843752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x378a…a638backed Yes55c67.29$37 inLost-$3710144.6%45 W · 56 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d2c…cd4ebacked Yes53c66.34$35 inLost-$351560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed No45c57.62$26 inWon+$31.6919352.8%102 W · 91 L+11.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b1f…4a6bbacked No47c41.96$20 inWon+$22.242737%10 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No48c40$19 inWon+$20.896956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0011…4cbabacked Yes53c38.02$20 inLost-$205945.8%27 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3066…98d9backed Yes53c37.55$20 inLost-$19.95251.9%27 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed No47c30$14 inWon+$15.933556.7%190 W · 145 L+26.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Yes54c27.78$15 inLost-$1531748.9%155 W · 162 L-12.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87ed…b497backed No46c27.78$13 inWon+$159947.5%47 W · 52 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf112…2d0cbacked No51c25.49$13 inWon+$12.49450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac6c…d0d4backed Yes52c22.91$12 inLost-$127153.5%38 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea48…3216backed Yes53c20$11 inLost-$10.66642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.