TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 104.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,000
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,829

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,000 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaca2…b9a1backed Over52c4,085$2,124 inLost-$2,124.232846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Under48c4,000$1,920 inWon+$2,08018448.9%90 W · 94 L-13.3wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x78bf…6df9backed Under61c809.79$494 inWon+$316.126261.3%38 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over39c559.88$218 inLost-$218.432,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c55…97d4backed Under64c520$333 inWon+$1877452.7%39 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Over36c520$187 inLost-$18779650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ba9…c25fbacked Over45c222.22$100 inLost-$1006246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Under50c102.46$51 inWon+$51.2337665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Under52c89.19$46 inWon+$42.8136749.6%182 W · 185 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6795…4a4cbacked Over48c89.19$43 inLost-$42.813964.1%25 W · 14 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf804…8758backed Under48c85$41 inWon+$44.23839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Over50c82.46$41 inLost-$4121642.1%91 W · 125 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x36b6…ef54backed Under62c48.25$30 inWon+$18.253351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Over40c45.9$18 inLost-$18.233556.7%190 W · 145 L+26.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over37c38.25$14 inLost-$14.151,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.