NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b532399a6bc57089209577a285ad23ee278f330ae8f84d2bd0122e45e0e225b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,091 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…c2a4backed Under | 53c | 15,000$7,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,986.43 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 10,101$4,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,362.27 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c75…329abacked Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 50c | 4,988$2,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,494.16 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 56c | 1,364$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.2 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 1,232$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.04 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 77c | 790.24$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.48 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 23c | 789.35$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.78 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 49c | 628.83$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.44 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Under | 52c | 605.77$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 321 | 51.7%166 W · 155 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 583.43$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.24 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 49c | 319.76$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.49 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Under | 46c | 267.28$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 53c | 208.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.18 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 51.4%90 W · 85 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over | 50c | 122$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…f98ebacked Over | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 47c | 70.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1349…dc1fbacked Under | 51c | 56.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 141 | 44.7%63 W · 78 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c3…e26dbacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 358 | 49.7%178 W · 180 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3b…fbabbacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…3132backed Over | 48c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 112 | 29.5%33 W · 79 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd815…1cdebacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…8f91backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Under | 45c | 34.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…0af4backed Over | 50c | 31.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…6568backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 319 | 55.2%176 W · 143 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3612…cf99backed Over | 54c | 27.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4378…5bb8backed Under | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0f…f9c0backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 241 | 50.2%121 W · 120 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Hawks won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Hawks vs. MavericksHawks won
- Hawks vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Spread: Hawks (-7.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.