NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffe36118585ff08bddb950ea4c8be0f313c45f70b293c271e02b1e1478f29bc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,127 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 5,875$2,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,765.82 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Over | 53c | 5,804$3,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,727.96 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 5,791$2,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,784.3 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 54c | 4,580$2,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,088.29 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…4856backed Over | 53c | 2,160$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.2 | 241 | 51%123 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 45c | 1,775$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.9 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…0999backed Over | 52c | 1,582$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.34 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc7…0602backed Over | 53c | 1,569$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.24 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 53c | 1,320$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.4 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Under | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 184 | 48.9%90 W · 94 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…db9dbacked Over | 50c | 1,190$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.89 | 206 | 51.5%106 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 1,010$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.41 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 983.33$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.17 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Under | 44c | 785.35$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.53 | 263 | 53.6%141 W · 122 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 46c | 581.29$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.25 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 54c | 555$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.3 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7715…ada4backed Over | 54c | 511.34$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.54 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 477.02$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.31 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 46c | 452$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.92 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…41c4backed Under | 47c | 444.8$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.06 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 46c | 398.7$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.4 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 45c | 350$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 53c | 336$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.42 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 55c | 271.76$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.29 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Under | 42c | 247.04$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 155 | 43.9%68 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 319 | 54.5%174 W · 145 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Under | 42c | 184.73$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 176$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 47c | 147.19$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f5…0688backed Under | 47c | 134.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc1…eaa0backed Over | 53c | 112.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 48c | 111.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 447 | 47%210 W · 237 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc4…3b29backed Over | 53c | 111.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d7…2b16backed Over | 53c | 111.17$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ca…0022backed Under | 48c | 110.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20a6…0b06backed Over | 53c | 109.2$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.32 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81ea…8b9abacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 47c | 89.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 369 | 49.6%183 W · 186 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 47c | 87.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 43c | 77.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…8984backed Under | 43c | 74.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4168…a631backed Under | 48c | 65.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over | 52c | 62.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e5…42acbacked Over | 53c | 60.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe62a…8abebacked Over | 52c | 59.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54df…51fabacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 270 | 50%135 W · 135 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 48c | 52.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 42c | 51.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 196 | 50.5%99 W · 97 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…cf1dbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 38.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 38.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…37d5backed Over | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 141 | 44.7%63 W · 78 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 53c | 30.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 46c | 25.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 52c | 25.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c03…1c9fbacked Under | 44c | 25.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Over | 57c | 21.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 156 | 62.8%98 W · 58 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab4…3431backed Over | 56c | 18.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 62c | 16.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Hawks won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Hawks vs. MavericksHawks won
- Hawks vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Spread: Hawks (-7.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.