TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,860
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,309

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,860 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x85c0…e01dbacked No6c547.89$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.441,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf229…d5f7backed Yes46c533.38$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.123928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes46c454.03$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.6916437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No27c416.58$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5860121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No15c373.04$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8128737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c372.08$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.2517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa811…75b8backed No71c352.74$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.346070%42 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed Yes70c327.43$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.973158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No65c307.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.992,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No32c274.17$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes71c270.49$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.951,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes58c256.64$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.7631341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6973…b296backed No20c250$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7513728.5%39 W · 98 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes33c245.84$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.781,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No36c245.53$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.22,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb3a…8daabacked No51c238.42$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.865756.1%32 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes42c235.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.455729.8%17 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6012…900fbacked No62c224.72$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.474551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes41c222.56$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.351,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes46c215.93$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.68643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No37c214.3$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6416550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a4…d89fbacked Yes56c200.45$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.352259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes49c200.05$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.6533139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes45c199.96$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.981,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes48c193.87$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.045846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes36c191.15$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.181,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x812d…8f72backed No54c184.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.557044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x723e…083ebacked No39c147.08$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.854334.9%15 W · 28 L-6.3wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-29.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes29c142.51$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.6918534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes78c142.07$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.621,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18de…0b64backed Yes58c140.03$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.335450%27 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ad8…9d72backed No10c138.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.911442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+376.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No38c129.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0320353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No65c127.46$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8733567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes34c119.85$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No53c113.34$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.362,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes35c112.98$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.7210642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No54c111.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.319059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes57c110.95$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.693250%16 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes62c110.42$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4645148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes54c110$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.529732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187f…7985backed Yes47c108.8$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.67540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ca…128abacked No26c108.65$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.852045%9 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1db5…ff84backed Yes37c107.47$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.993333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes67c106.45$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.723246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes45c104.08$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2549854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes37c103.31$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0856131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes44c102.58$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4545238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f92…15d2backed Yes57c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85e3…5906backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+115.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes48c99.84$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9216045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes46c99.8$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.899,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes46c97.44$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.621,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xabc6…acb4backed Yes46c94.35$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.951764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39d4…3e2ebacked Yes51c88.12$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No55c87.33$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8452571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No68c86.27$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6637533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfddb…4b77backed Yes58c82.16$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.241861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes32c80.74$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.259125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes31c80.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6553547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes50c77.2$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.443855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No37c77.15$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5734057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes63c76.3$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1411223.2%26 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No56c76.06$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5927167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes45c75.5$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5311249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb82…68a3backed Yes79c71.2$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c6…9534backed Yes66c68.79$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.142152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No49c66.06$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.371,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No54c64.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1914671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No54c64.89$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.044,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes64c64.46$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.525,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes59c63.92$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0849941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No69c62.97$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4772952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e5e…5441backed No54c62.63$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.613250%16 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-27.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No38c62.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.417,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe1d3…0321backed Yes47c61.83$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.77850%4 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94ce…edf2backed Yes80c61.71$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.635648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No55c60.58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0716575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes80c59.97$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0923738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes61c59.94$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3811644%51 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No66c58.92$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1254966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed No53c55.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2812057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe009…121ebacked Yes35c53.72$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.922638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes60c52.82$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.944963.3%31 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes46c52.03$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.144945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87c7…2b48backed Yes36c52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.281225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No38c51.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.64339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes31c51.21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3339535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No60c50.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.267,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6c0…cb52backed Yes45c50.62$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes46c50.14$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0719541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba2a…d857backed No49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed No52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265547.3%26 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1715435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes28c49.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3664333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e7…04a6backed Yes58c49.55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.814738.3%18 W · 29 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b1…f426backed No67c48.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.643571.4%25 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe551…2e76backed Yes45c48.68$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.