Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e183cfe51d3bc128a428cf60cc987f05c70ace3a1067d40909d095174d36835
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 77c | 3,701$2,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.59 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 12c | 2,224$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.09 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 2,181$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 16c | 1,590$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.44 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 19c | 1,216$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.23 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,210$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.06 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,203$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.86 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 7c | 987.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 14c | 884.66$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 18c | 809.82$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.07 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 17c | 549.59$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a5…859cbacked Yes | 8c | 499.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 431.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 15c | 418.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 7c | 356.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 21c | 353.82$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 11c | 342.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 80c | 341.62$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.87 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 14c | 313.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 78c | 308.94$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ee…5ba7backed Yes | 15c | 281.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 263.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 15c | 262.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 24c | 231.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…1291backed Yes | 8c | 215.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 9c | 215.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 9c | 209.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed Yes | 7c | 205.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 12c | 192.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…7760backed Yes | 10c | 184.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…5a45backed Yes | 10c | 178.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 9c | 177.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 25c | 175.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 12c | 167.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9205…2aa7backed Yes | 16c | 146.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…c6b6backed Yes | 8c | 136.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 19c | 134.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 10c | 133.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 19c | 131.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 12c | 117.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 21c | 106.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddb…4b77backed Yes | 22c | 106.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 103.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…f47bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4072…ec73backed No | 78c | 97.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 17c | 97.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 20c | 96.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ff84backed Yes | 12c | 92.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 20c | 90.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked Yes | 29c | 81.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 79.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 22c | 72.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 69.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7779…1de9backed No | 79c | 66.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 26c | 65.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked No | 79c | 54.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 22c | 46.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 80c | 39.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 77c | 28.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc3…b159backed No | 78c | 24.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…b6bebacked No | 67c | 22.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 71c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.