Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x065d03a309ea1ef17d7343d31bc3e3e69a2b3cc5671274e4cf4773cb86d02507
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 40c | 447.83$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.1 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 377$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.78 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 11c | 376.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 77c | 338.98$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 338.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 21c | 305.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…5a45backed Yes | 19c | 296.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 36c | 290.04$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.09 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 277.04$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 30c | 272.26$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed Yes | 23c | 241.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 41c | 217.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 209.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…f896backed Yes | 40c | 199$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 6c | 197.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes | 38c | 197.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.12 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 192.22$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…0321backed Yes | 25c | 188.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…b145backed Yes | 33c | 184.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 19c | 183.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 183.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 33c | 171.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…e1bfbacked Yes | 19c | 147.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 66c | 146.69$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 127.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 64c | 125.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 123.09$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 121.39$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 26c | 117.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ff84backed Yes | 38c | 112.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 18c | 109.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 104.47$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 24c | 101.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 100.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 98.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 38c | 93.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 35c | 93.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 36c | 92.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4826…79dabacked Yes | 17c | 92.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 62c | 92.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 91.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…734ebacked No | 79c | 91.11$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 40c | 85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 81.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 80.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 62c | 78.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…758ebacked Yes | 39c | 77.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed Yes | 20c | 74.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 18c | 74.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 39c | 73.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 27c | 68.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 62c | 66.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 21c | 65.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 65.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x81e7…7389backed Yes | 20c | 64.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddb…4b77backed No | 76c | 64.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 26c | 62.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…5ffcbacked Yes | 36c | 62.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 38c | 61.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7444…d815backed No | 69c | 60.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 18c | 59.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 22c | 59.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2c…af6cbacked No | 65c | 59.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 19c | 57.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 31c | 56.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 69c | 54.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 19c | 54.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe009…121ebacked Yes | 44c | 53.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…2b48backed Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 40c | 51.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 60c | 50.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b38abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 38c | 49.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed No | 78c | 48.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 63c | 47.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 36c | 46.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…eab8backed Yes | 33c | 46.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 69c | 45.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 45.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a5…859cbacked No | 61c | 45.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 32c | 44.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…7985backed Yes | 31c | 42.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 67c | 40.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…e304backed Yes | 30c | 40.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes | 35c | 40.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…4b39backed Yes | 37c | 40.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 30c | 39.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.