TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,904
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,178

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,904 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes40c447.83$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.156131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes20c377$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.781,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes11c376.47$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2957614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No77c338.98$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.941,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes7c338.91$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.972,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes21c305.82$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0231341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x848c…5a45backed Yes19c296.48$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.942832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes36c290.04$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0917135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No79c277.04$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes30c272.26$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.581,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed Yes23c241.72$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.463158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes41c217.8$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.48643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes24c209.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.273,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7048…f896backed Yes40c199$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.962520%5 W · 20 L-4.9wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-54.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes6c197.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8622945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes38c197.69$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.125846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes38c192.22$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.421,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d3…0321backed Yes25c188.45$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.23850%4 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c78…b145backed Yes33c184.44$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1640%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6de…9452backed Yes19c183.64$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.098428.6%24 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c183.06$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes33c171.61$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2753437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9283…e1bfbacked Yes19c147.91$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.752944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No66c146.69$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3554966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Yes8c140$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0524921.3%53 W · 196 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes18c127.46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.295,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No64c125.75$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7533567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No68c123.09$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.621,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No62c121.39$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.644,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc6…d496backed Yes26c117.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.316657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1db5…ff84backed Yes38c112.31$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.533333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes18c109.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1545148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No69c104.47$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.792,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes24c101.35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.381,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes33c100.29$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.487,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes33c99.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No62c98.88$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.589,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes38c93.78$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6419160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes35c93.39$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2749941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes36c92.83$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5774338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4826…79dabacked Yes17c92.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.681464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No62c92.14$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4634250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes16c91.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.577,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x780f…734ebacked No79c91.11$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.491070%7 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick74cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes40c85$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3419541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes38c81.92$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.523,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes35c80.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.171,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd425…bf47backed No62c78.43$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.165068%34 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0354…758ebacked Yes39c77.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.281643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed Yes20c74.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0616550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes18c74.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1160121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes39c73.32$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5911835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes27c68.85$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.427126.8%19 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No62c66.06$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.127167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes21c65.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7216651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes19c65.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x81e7…7389backed Yes20c64.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfddb…4b77backed No76c64.02$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.21861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes26c62.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9247136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a00…5ffcbacked Yes36c62.29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.472733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf229…d5f7backed Yes38c61.14$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.093928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7444…d815backed No69c60.77$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.042157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.729732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes18c59.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7911644%51 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes22c59.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1218327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2c…af6cbacked No65c59.03$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.411952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes19c57.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9724442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes31c56.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5164333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes31c55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0544945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No69c54.09$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8939966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes19c54.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2623738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe009…121ebacked Yes44c53.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.322638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87c7…2b48backed Yes36c52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.721225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes40c51.71$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7839535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No60c50.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1724768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.55841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9791…a14abacked No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.519461.9%120 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb185…48c1backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1019720.8%41 W · 156 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b38abacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes38c49.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7514736.1%53 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfab6…f3e1backed No78c48.79$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.943246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No63c47.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.670770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes40c47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.834934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes36c46.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8545238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4912…eab8backed Yes33c46.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.384030%12 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79f4…8812backed No69c45.92$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.385060%30 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes22c45.82$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.081,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa7a5…859cbacked No61c45.53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.762420.8%5 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x080a…6030backed Yes32c44.26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.976114.8%9 W · 52 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-48.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6d58…17a9backed Yes23c43.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0916530.9%51 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x187f…7985backed Yes31c42.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.03540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes27c42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3416234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No67c40.62$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2849854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2328…e304backed Yes30c40.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.973933.3%13 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes35c40.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.215749%77 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14a9…4b39backed Yes37c40.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.91450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No63c39.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.856265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes30c39.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8519123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.