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NBA · resolved market

Suns vs. Pacers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sunsof Suns, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,786,860

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,786,860 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,557 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Suns79c274,302$215,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,628.1772648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Pacers23c150,000$34,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,496.9266248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Suns79c133,000$105,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,600.8460351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Pacers20c116,001$23,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,200.1459347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Pacers22c56,724$12,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,586.984,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Pacers24c53,157$12,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,987.3619645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pacers21c52,533$10,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,862.54,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Pacers0c43,683$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.497211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Suns78c42,773$33,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,380.291,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pacers13c36,417$4,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,840.091,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pacers21c35,792$7,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,562.944,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Pacers20c34,300$6,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,859.9716039.4%63 W · 97 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Pacers14c33,333$4,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,666.6228241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Pacers13c31,136$4,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,122.781,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Suns77c29,076$22,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,687.4920454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Suns77c27,408$21,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,378.2934851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Pacers20c26,250$5,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,249.9928643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdab4…a27abacked Suns79c25,000$19,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,200.158944.9%40 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x646e…3b1dbacked Pacers22c25,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,399.996023.3%14 W · 46 L-9.4wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-46.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Suns78c24,987$19,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,498.2874748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cc6…9df6backed Suns78c23,539$18,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,092.692532%8 W · 17 L-5.0wins-0.20per pick52cpaid-37.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5aec…b4cebacked Pacers23c21,918$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0008838.6%34 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Pacers20c21,253$4,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,287.4431644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Pacers19c20,000$3,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,849.991,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Pacers20c17,945$3,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,531.5520744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Pacers14c17,557$2,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,478.241,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Pacers17c16,860$2,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,900.679629.2%28 W · 68 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Suns78c15,168$11,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,268.741,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d73…9aadbacked Pacers22c14,000$3,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,079.961540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Pacers21c13,971$2,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,870.4524942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Pacers21c13,950$2,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,916.8829245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Suns78c12,782$9,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,783.871,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Pacers23c12,742$2,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,930.531,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Pacers20c11,153$2,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,230.5227241.9%114 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pacers20c10,964$2,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,192.882,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Suns78c10,808$8,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,380.712,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Pacers22c10,313$2,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,274.0632540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Pacers6c10,211$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.511,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Pacers0c10,160$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.461,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Suns77c10,000$7,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,260.0187750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Suns76c10,000$7,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,396.823257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaef…e17dbacked Pacers22c9,701$2,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1345032%16 W · 34 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76ab…506dbacked Suns78c9,700$7,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,134.084551.1%23 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Suns79c9,520$7,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.211443.9%50 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Suns79c9,139$7,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9434,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Pacers22c9,092$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00035438.1%135 W · 219 L+1.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Pacers22c8,824$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,941.2819957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Suns79c8,772$6,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,842.122,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pacers22c8,376$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,869.85,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Suns78c8,000$6,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,731.2629250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1e6…1dc1backed Pacers23c8,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,839.641361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Pacers20c8,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.994344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Suns80c7,500$5,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,502.2324549%120 W · 125 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Suns78c7,405$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,604.652760%316 W · 211 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Suns78c7,273$5,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,609.621,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Pacers21c6,898$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.723,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Pacers22c6,835$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.6429055.5%161 W · 129 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Pacers20c6,334$1,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.926353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Pacers0c6,300$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.18820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pacers17c6,275$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.948,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Pacers1c6,179$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1964517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3a…df40backed Suns80c6,039$4,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.789953.5%53 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfec6…f355backed Pacers22c6,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3203847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aeb…01c2backed Suns78c6,000$4,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.74650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c1d…3846backed Suns78c6,000$4,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3206943.5%30 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked Pacers23c5,921$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,36829635.8%106 W · 190 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x260b…1ab1backed Pacers24c5,810$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,394.3728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Pacers21c5,341$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.9472450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…cfcabacked Pacers22c5,202$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1581421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.19per pick40cpaid-53%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8000…3a21backed Pacers24c5,000$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.325947.5%123 W · 136 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Suns77c5,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1501,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa3b…d6b7backed Suns77c5,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1505658.9%33 W · 23 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+21.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Pacers22c5,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.5521549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Pacers21c5,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.9847043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x853e…0d8cbacked Pacers24c4,959$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.4812042.5%51 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked Pacers21c4,915$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.353455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbcc…c7e0backed Pacers22c4,900$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,07830%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Pacers22c4,785$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.751,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Pacers22c4,500$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.2122143%95 W · 126 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f07…f1bcbacked Pacers23c4,441$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.671346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Pacers17c4,428$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.691,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Pacers23c4,348$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008153.1%43 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0fd…2a7ebacked Suns78c4,316$3,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0072…3d75backed Suns77c4,149$3,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.2114738.1%56 W · 91 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa89c…398fbacked Pacers25c4,000$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.3312524.8%31 W · 94 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pacers10c3,928$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.513,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0707…310abacked Suns78c3,896$3,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.586746.3%31 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Suns78c3,846$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.1931453.5%168 W · 146 L+0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Suns79c3,821$3,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.5427455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd36…6ec9backed Pacers21c3,794$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.715044%22 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Suns75c3,306$2,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.882,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ec…681ebacked Pacers13c3,231$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.214134.1%14 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Pacers19c3,227$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.127848.9%136 W · 142 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Suns78c3,224$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.4856453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Suns78c3,205$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.1724151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Pacers22c3,173$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.9646940.3%189 W · 280 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Pacers23c3,110$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.861939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ddd…39eebacked Suns78c3,084$2,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.2422542.2%95 W · 130 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed Pacers27c3,037$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.766126.2%16 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Suns79c3,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.6735251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.