NBA · resolved market
Aaron Nesmith: Assists O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c1441fb37f079d6d9e1ea9bfe14e4f892540906bced549c040d36c84324bdc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,954 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Yes | 41c | 2,814$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.75 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 57c | 800$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 64c | 401.84$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.97 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 57c | 259.2$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.74 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 59c | 143$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 40c | 136$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 221 | 40.7%90 W · 131 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 10c | 123$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 76 | 22.4%17 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 57c | 114$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa413…1fe0backed No | 58c | 107.79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 58c | 97.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 92 | 67.4%62 W · 30 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 42c | 97.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 60c | 82.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…c1d3backed No | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 227 | 74.4%169 W · 58 L | +22.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 57c | 58.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed No | 66c | 45.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 487 | 51.7%252 W · 235 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aaron Nesmith: Assists O/U 1.5this page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-4.5)Suns won
- Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Devin Booker: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Devin Booker: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Grayson Allen: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jalen Green: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Royce O'Neale: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Suns (-8.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-9.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. PacersSuns won
- Suns vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pacers: O/U 221.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pacers: O/U 222.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pacers: O/U 223.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pacers: O/U 224.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pacers: O/U 225.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.