NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Pacers: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae1d9926685da2ab91b0a8dae726457ec7b11f09708ff6cc4b5ff176dd9d8261
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,266 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6734…2e18backed Suns | 70c | 4,436$3,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.15 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Pacers | 30c | 1,683$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.9 | 221 | 43%95 W · 126 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Pacers | 30c | 1,336$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.68 | 171 | 51.5%88 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb503…7552backed Pacers | 30c | 556.73$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.02 | 141 | 55.3%78 W · 63 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…328ebacked Pacers | 34c | 416.54$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.45 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Pacers | 30c | 334.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.37 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Pacers | 32c | 284.15$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.95 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Pacers | 29c | 281.96$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.72 | 221 | 40.7%90 W · 131 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Pacers | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Pacers | 34c | 225.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 263 | 53.6%141 W · 122 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…0100backed Pacers | 19c | 214$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab1…b84bbacked Pacers | 19c | 212$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9231…fc90backed Pacers | 19c | 188$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…a365backed Pacers | 19c | 182$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefcd…f539backed Pacers | 19c | 159$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…4c0bbacked Pacers | 19c | 147$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…2e8ebacked Pacers | 19c | 143$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…fa87backed Pacers | 19c | 134$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pacers | 28c | 94.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Pacers | 28c | 89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Pacers | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 290 | 40.3%117 W · 173 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe3…949cbacked Pacers | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Pacers | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pacers | 29c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Pacers | 29c | 50.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Pacers | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd598…c67cbacked Pacers | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Pacers | 34c | 38.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 308 | 45.8%141 W · 167 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…73debacked Suns | 72c | 34.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 137 | 44.5%61 W · 76 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbb…727fbacked Suns | 66c | 29.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Suns | 61c | 23.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Pacers: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-4.5)Suns won
- Aaron Nesmith: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Devin Booker: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Devin Booker: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Grayson Allen: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jalen Green: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Royce O'Neale: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Suns (-8.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-9.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. PacersSuns won
- Suns vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pacers: O/U 221.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pacers: O/U 222.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pacers: O/U 223.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pacers: O/U 224.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pacers: O/U 225.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.