NBA · resolved market
Grayson Allen: Points O/U 15.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x779b2d80fe45e6e4e90adb1d3ba4b9938b0a9f747e69d90bebcb80388c0c58cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,217 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 68c | 3,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed Yes | 32c | 2,607$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.11 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e7ebbacked Yes | 31c | 1,325$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 73c | 269.99$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 72c | 214.37$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x178d…43fcbacked Yes | 40c | 174.06$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17fb…5d28backed Yes | 25c | 132.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246c…8142backed Yes | 27c | 124.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 70c | 117.6$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 70c | 98.03$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…72eebacked Yes | 31c | 90.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 37cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 50c | 82.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 71c | 79.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…c1d3backed No | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 227 | 74.4%169 W · 58 L | +22.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ba18backed Yes | 26c | 71.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked No | 70c | 28.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 462 | 55.6%257 W · 205 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grayson Allen: Points O/U 15.5this page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-4.5)Suns won
- Aaron Nesmith: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Devin Booker: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Devin Booker: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jalen Green: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Royce O'Neale: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Suns (-8.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-9.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. PacersSuns won
- Suns vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pacers: O/U 221.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pacers: O/U 222.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pacers: O/U 223.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pacers: O/U 224.5Over won
- Suns vs. Pacers: O/U 225.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.