Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Matt Pinnell replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cef30e6b69e47af7783e29fbfbb234f53fc778ed8370c35ceb924f44934dc9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,323 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 57c | 7,658$4,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,312.75 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,482$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,106$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 899.11$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.05 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked No | 61c | 784.28$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.57 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…bdb6backed Yes | 70c | 657$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f59…3637backed Yes | 61c | 500$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 65c | 466$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.66 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Yes | 29c | 424$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 54c | 358.8$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.95 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 22c | 358.36$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 45c | 342.23$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…2e76backed Yes | 71c | 330.96$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 57c | 266.79$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.42 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc405…4affbacked Yes | 55c | 259.33$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed No | 56c | 257.02$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed Yes | 55c | 241.92$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…6790backed Yes | 43c | 223.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x484b…3ef9backed Yes | 69c | 220$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed Yes | 34c | 200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 30cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a19…8f5bbacked Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 64c | 197.82$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.69 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…98e0backed Yes | 25c | 191.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 34c | 186$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e5…008cbacked Yes | 72c | 180$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…7df2backed No | 29c | 178.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +248.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 45c | 168.24$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 65c | 158$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd570…b90abacked No | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 136$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 32c | 129.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 71c | 114$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…dd70backed Yes | 52c | 111.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb60…1938backed Yes | 54c | 106$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed No | 31c | 104.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 69c | 104.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 37c | 103.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…0991backed Yes | 68c | 102$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 61cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x898f…8f93backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…7fe8backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef02…4f7ebacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f32…78cebacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb6…1857backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x94ed…3e88backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 92.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed No | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…397ebacked Yes | 54c | 67.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 70c | 64.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Yes | 57c | 61.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…dd78backed No | 28c | 56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +191.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 30c | 55.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 52.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…4bdebacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…edbdbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…e991backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 32.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…f85fbacked Yes | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 54c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…10adbacked Yes | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b88…e1bebacked Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Matt Pinnell replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?this page
- Will Charles McCall replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?No won
- Will Gentner Drummond replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?No won
- Will Kevin Hern replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?No won
- Will Kevin Stitt replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?No won
- Will Ryan Walters replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?No won
- Will Stephanie Bice replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.