Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Stephanie Bice replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5aa5e89c0168f9cfcd9e0bef9c12d16369b52c7675bef874e1146bc10ab82941
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,410 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 333.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 4c | 304.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked No | 76c | 276.45$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe41b…e178backed Yes | 18c | 251$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b5…80eebacked Yes | 19c | 250$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 7c | 236.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 8c | 224.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7f59…3637backed Yes | 20c | 194$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…98e0backed Yes | 8c | 192.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 98.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed Yes | 20c | 88.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 20c | 88.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stephanie Bice replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?this page
- Will Charles McCall replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?No won
- Will Gentner Drummond replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?No won
- Will Kevin Hern replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?No won
- Will Kevin Stitt replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?No won
- Will Matt Pinnell replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?No won
- Will Ryan Walters replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.