TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Hawks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hawksof Mavericks, Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,199,694

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,199,694 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Mavericks22c550,944$121,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,207.3887144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Hawks78c298,213$232,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,546.3866248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Mavericks23c220,068$50,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,614.8143542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Mavericks23c100,000$23,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,999.9711955.5%66 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Hawks77c90,061$69,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,640.651,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Hawks78c51,926$40,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,423.6528649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2133…816ebacked Hawks79c46,045$36,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,448.31662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks77c42,419$32,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,585.814,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Hawks77c39,614$30,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,111.2214663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Hawks77c30,436$23,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,000.1839842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Mavericks23c30,000$6,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,90054539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Hawks79c28,603$22,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,102.951,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Mavericks0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Hawks79c24,780$19,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,30123052.6%121 W · 109 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Mavericks6c24,564$1,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,421.1183039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Mavericks13c20,597$2,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,757.361,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Mavericks1c20,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hawks77c17,736$13,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,091.234,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4f5…1079backed Mavericks18c16,759$3,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,029.325048%24 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Hawks79c15,944$12,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,346.752,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed Hawks77c15,300$11,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5192060%12 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Mavericks0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1567921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Hawks77c14,976$11,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,387.8672450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hawks77c14,194$10,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,264.514,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0441…b3aabacked Hawks77c13,901$10,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,197.868441.7%35 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f04…73d5backed Mavericks23c13,900$3,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,196.985444.4%24 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81f0…cbb1backed Hawks79c12,921$10,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,775.58765.5%57 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked Hawks77c12,480$9,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,844.193348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks77c11,484$8,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,615.39,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Mavericks23c11,198$2,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,528.5829250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Mavericks23c10,427$2,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,397.9924831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Mavericks7c10,112$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.531,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Mavericks1c10,100$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.999629.2%28 W · 68 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Mavericks25c9,349$2,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,292.8976850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Mavericks21c9,336$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,959.7241832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c75…b299backed Mavericks21c8,972$1,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8844438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc2e…bebfbacked Hawks77c8,819$6,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,028.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks10c8,438$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.038,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Mavericks1c8,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1205213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Mavericks21c7,092$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.0232540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46bc…2d14backed Mavericks15c7,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05018931.2%59 W · 130 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hawks77c6,952$5,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586.72,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02b6…fbbbbacked Hawks78c6,923$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523.083256.3%18 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc25d…9107backed Mavericks21c6,908$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Hawks77c6,890$5,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,591.1234851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Mavericks0c6,622$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.227211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ed0…a9c5backed Hawks77c6,555$5,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.733941%16 W · 23 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-20.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf594…bfc1backed Mavericks14c6,401$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.829553.7%51 W · 44 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Mavericks11c6,371$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.711,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Hawks77c5,969$4,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.8724744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x034b…b22bbacked Hawks78c5,824$4,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,281.363070%21 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Mavericks0c5,655$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.68820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Hawks79c5,047$3,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.0713063.8%83 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Mavericks21c5,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05072241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Hawks78c4,709$3,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.428554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Hawks78c4,487$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.181,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Mavericks22c4,047$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.386641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad84…1f2bbacked Hawks77c4,010$3,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.3966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a1f…d0bbbacked Hawks78c4,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Mavericks23c3,980$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.448944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Hawks77c3,851$2,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.6336351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa828…7ecbbacked Hawks80c3,793$3,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.5887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick71cpaid+23.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeeb3…5ceabacked Hawks77c3,509$2,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.331741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Hawks77c3,455$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.5525452.8%134 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks10c3,451$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3625,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Hawks77c3,418$2,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.1916370.6%115 W · 48 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Hawks78c3,194$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.7856453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0577…caa7backed Hawks80c3,111$2,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.981127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Mavericks22c3,050$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.221,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Mavericks22c3,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.7238434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks79c2,952$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.354,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Mavericks8c2,899$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.953,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3335…3656backed Mavericks21c2,700$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.28759.8%52 W · 35 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+33.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Hawks77c2,588$1,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.2622143%95 W · 126 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Hawks75c2,500$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62595641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Mavericks22c2,500$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.580737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Hawks79c2,480$1,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.1117356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Mavericks22c2,369$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.227241.9%114 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Mavericks22c2,300$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.5568944%303 W · 386 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Mavericks22c2,297$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50057650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea7…bcd9backed Mavericks11c2,284$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.793141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Mavericks22c2,274$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50033735.3%119 W · 218 L+1.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Hawks77c2,252$1,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.983,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Mavericks23c2,206$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50748938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4e8…0dbdbacked Hawks77c2,180$1,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Mavericks20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40039744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Hawks74c2,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52039349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Hawks77c2,000$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.9832051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01fc…5c93backed Mavericks13c1,992$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick40cpaid+92.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed Mavericks22c1,924$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4233743.2%16 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc073…3c03backed Hawks77c1,895$1,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.94560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Mavericks16c1,863$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.1661939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Hawks74c1,822$1,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.6235547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Mavericks23c1,783$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.0916440.9%67 W · 97 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Mavericks19c1,780$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.633139.3%130 W · 201 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b4…b25abacked Mavericks25c1,773$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.291050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaac…ff10backed Hawks80c1,744$1,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.6312454.8%68 W · 56 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Mavericks13c1,720$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.0219434.5%67 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Mavericks8c1,694$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.38783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x65b6…2108backed Mavericks4c1,552$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6335844.1%158 W · 200 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.