NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcce040fb33a5a83731e9ecebfe6979de6fadc91241e4951ad476de1d60680f4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,519 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 53c | 3,491$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851.51 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 3,391$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,831.25 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f95…b08bbacked Over | 52c | 2,486$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.39 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 1,822$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.11 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 50c | 1,767$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.5 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Under | 46c | 904.83$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.73 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 51c | 780.01$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.62 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 53c | 719.66$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.42 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6eb…5402backed Over | 56c | 536.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Over | 57c | 388.01$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 47c | 339.14$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.81 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Under | 46c | 326.26$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.18 | 405 | 46.9%190 W · 215 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 45c | 313.62$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.49 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Under | 46c | 291.3$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.32 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 252$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.56 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…0a6fbacked Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 119 | 57.1%68 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x701f…9b8fbacked Under | 46c | 182.35$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.47 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 43c | 170$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +29.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 42c | 167.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 45c | 157$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 50c | 130.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 54c | 129.92$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 47c | 127.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 56c | 124.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 46c | 121.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e7…884cbacked Over | 56c | 111.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 163 | 38.7%63 W · 100 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under | 45c | 78.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 340 | 47.1%160 W · 180 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 49c | 78.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 48c | 77.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 308 | 45.8%141 W · 167 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Under | 46c | 66.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 50c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 50c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7797…668bbacked Over | 59c | 57.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 51c | 54.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Over | 51c | 49.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 41c | 47.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…a4f0backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 43.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Under | 47c | 40.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…69d0backed Over | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…049abacked Under | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 180 | 54.4%98 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 69c | 32.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Under | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 327 | 47.4%155 W · 172 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 31.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Over | 55c | 29.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 144 | 71.5%103 W · 41 L | +22.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Under | 44c | 29.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 25.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 47c | 24.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 57c | 24.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 23.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 48c | 22.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 545 | 49.5%270 W · 275 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…7191backed Over | 56c | 19.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Hawks won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Khris Middleton: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Mavericks vs. HawksHawks won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5Under won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Spread: Hawks (-10.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-11.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-12.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Hawks (-13.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.