NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-8.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a60b16559cd80a9dd1172a5349b6e880b96043df89a0619592777a951676314

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Hawksof Hawks, Mavericks
Resolved: Mar 11, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $34,663

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,663 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Mavericks	44c	6,635$2,919 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,918.83	662	48.5%321 W · 341 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05c4…a4f2backed Mavericks	47c	6,000$2,790 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,789.99	120	45%54 W · 66 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Hawks	54c	4,985$2,692 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,293.16	1,915	49.3%944 W · 971 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Hawks	54c	3,154$1,703 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,450.67	702	46.4%326 W · 376 L	-20.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks	43c	2,607$1,123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,123.13	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0eca…6a15backed Hawks	58c	1,661$961 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$699.37	97	42.3%41 W · 56 L	-10.0wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-19%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks	46c	1,602$736 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$736.1	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51c3…459fbacked Hawks	53c	1,509$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$709.43	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.23per pick	49cpaid	+46%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x69ca…9ef8backed Hawks	57c	1,495$850 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$645.43	285	54.7%156 W · 129 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks	57c	1,482$845 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$637.26	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Hawks	53c	1,346$713 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$632.67	377	47.5%179 W · 198 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Mavericks	46c	1,237$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569.63	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Mavericks	46c	1,080$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496.8	221	43%95 W · 126 L	-12.0wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Mavericks	45c	1,042$469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468.75	1,194	48.8%583 W · 611 L	-22.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks	45c	977.27$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434.88	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks	44c	711.25$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.35	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6292…d254backed Hawks	56c	549.15$309 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.5	208	46.6%97 W · 111 L	-9.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Hawks	57c	527.24$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.24	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Mavericks	40c	416$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.4	194	34.5%67 W · 127 L	-10.2wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-20%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Mavericks	44c	363.64$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	521	46.6%243 W · 278 L	-14.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd448…f700backed Hawks	57c	350.91$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.91	109	53.2%58 W · 51 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Hawks	53c	292$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.36	451	51.4%232 W · 219 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Mavericks	43c	280.33$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.23	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Hawks	56c	246.04$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.35	233	48.9%114 W · 119 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Mavericks	46c	231.79$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.86	1,141	48%548 W · 593 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480e…90c7backed Hawks	58c	229.69$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.78	154	46.8%72 W · 82 L	-12.0wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Mavericks	44c	227.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	434	47.5%206 W · 228 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Mavericks	45c	209.75$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.29	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Hawks	44c	200$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112	382	42.9%164 W · 218 L	-11.5wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Mavericks	53c	180.25$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.03	1,645	47.5%782 W · 863 L	+40.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4380…7d8dbacked Mavericks	45c	175.99$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.2	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd8…5cdbbacked Hawks	58c	172.41$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.41	60	58.3%35 W · 25 L	+5.0wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce9f…f70abacked Mavericks	45c	167$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.15	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+43.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf8f…8bbabacked Mavericks	8c	162.49$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	80	27.5%22 W · 58 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46bd…37e8backed Hawks	54c	139.08$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.08	168	37.5%63 W · 105 L	-20.6wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-25%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Hawks	45c	137.12$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.04	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Mavericks	45c	124.59$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.15	399	43.1%172 W · 227 L	-17.1wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Hawks	57c	122.45$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.45	722	50.6%365 W · 357 L	-17.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Mavericks	44c	102.27$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	514	38.7%199 W · 315 L	-29.6wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86a8…d0e7backed Hawks	57c	100.18$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.18	109	55%60 W · 49 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks	45c	94.74$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.11	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Hawks	54c	92.76$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.76	381	52.8%201 W · 180 L	+18.2wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6aa…5a37backed Hawks	55c	73$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.85	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+107.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadd0…aebfbacked Hawks	55c	65$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.11	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Mavericks	43c	64.94$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.99	140	46.4%65 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x244d…cd8fbacked Hawks	55c	62$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.9	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+66.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2701…3235backed Hawks	55c	59$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.55	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+55.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61af…aa01backed Hawks	72c	50$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	384	64.3%247 W · 137 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d54…a756backed Mavericks	45c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	59	42.4%25 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bff…cf8cbacked Hawks	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Mavericks	47c	47.48$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.32	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f1…d87bbacked Mavericks	44c	46.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.37	157	52.2%82 W · 75 L	+5.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaec…eaafbacked Hawks	55c	45.45$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.45	293	48.5%142 W · 151 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Hawks	54c	43.8$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.15	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7253…9190backed Mavericks	46c	43.47$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	128	41.4%53 W · 75 L	-7.4wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Mavericks	45c	41.65$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.82	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Mavericks	44c	40.47$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.81	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Mavericks	44c	38.03$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.69	358	43.6%156 W · 202 L	-8.0wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49a8…b182backed Hawks	57c	35.15$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.15	61	52.5%32 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf841…b2ebbacked Hawks	54c	35$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.13	140	49.3%69 W · 71 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks	47c	33.27$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.79	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcee0…e158backed Hawks	55c	32$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-4.6wins	-0.15per pick	50cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Mavericks	41c	30.96$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.73	106	23.6%25 W · 81 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x322f…65a5backed Hawks	56c	30.36$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.36	119	43.7%52 W · 67 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf148…def7backed Hawks	55c	29$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.05	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Hawks	59c	28.22$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.53	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Mavericks	45c	26.32$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.83	296	45.6%135 W · 161 L	-12.3wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Mavericks	45c	26.18$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.78	609	45.8%279 W · 330 L	-17.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44e4…f624backed Hawks	57c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.62	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Hawks (-8.5)this page
1H Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Hawks won
Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Khris Middleton: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
Mavericks vs. HawksHawks won
Mavericks vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
Mavericks vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 235.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5Under won
Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5Under won
Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Under won
Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5Under won
Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5Under won
Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5Under won
Max Christie: Points O/U 11.5No won
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
Spread: Hawks (-10.5)Hawks won
Spread: Hawks (-11.5)Hawks won
Spread: Hawks (-12.5)Mavericks won
Spread: Hawks (-13.5)Mavericks won
Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Hawks (-8.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event