NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 122.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44737fa702d23a7cc87d2fe04e0f443ad15f5e7cf23e8eeff20ade2b74a3d27f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,093 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 47c | 1,553$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.13 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3817…7d10backed Over | 54c | 687$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.56 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 53c | 677$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.51 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 46c | 543$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.22 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb205…d31ebacked Over | 52c | 323$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5c…4b4cbacked Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0d…d063backed Under | 48c | 289$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…aeecbacked Under | 48c | 288$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2539backed Over | 52c | 276$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…1996backed Under | 48c | 253$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec4…9202backed Under | 48c | 245$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…9ec9backed Under | 48c | 245$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over | 52c | 243$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.36 | 263 | 53.6%141 W · 122 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…2b6ebacked Over | 52c | 225$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…b4ebbacked Over | 52c | 196$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Over | 56c | 88.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 381 | 52.8%201 W · 180 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 43c | 67.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 122.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Hawks won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Khris Middleton: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Mavericks vs. HawksHawks won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5Under won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Spread: Hawks (-10.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-11.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-12.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Hawks (-13.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.