NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x822207e82a4fa52c7f76c4a811a7a325f7b7434d3b1000f12f25d7b635834fe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,986 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 1,018$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.61 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 857.6$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.61 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d34…3406backed Under | 53c | 660.38$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.38 | 161 | 62.7%101 W · 60 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 46c | 549.99$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 358 | 49.7%178 W · 180 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 46c | 543.39$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.83 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 54c | 430.88$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.68 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…1405backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 49c | 218.53$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.08 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 51c | 217.61$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.63 | 216 | 53.7%116 W · 100 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 52c | 216.17$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.84 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 53c | 205.25$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 48c | 132.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…abd3backed Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 53c | 58.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Under | 52c | 56.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…f42dbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Hawks won
- Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Khris Middleton: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Mavericks vs. HawksHawks won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5Under won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Spread: Hawks (-10.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-11.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-12.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Hawks (-13.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.