TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hawksof Hawks, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,205,154

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,205,154 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Hawks50c456,763$226,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230,312.7287451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Mavericks52c455,376$236,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236,795.287144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Hawks48c295,503$141,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153,661.3666248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Mavericks50c149,699$74,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,849.692,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Mavericks51c85,156$43,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,546.3843148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Mavericks50c75,000$37,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,50024650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Mavericks52c65,000$33,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,8001,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks50c64,720$32,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,469.834,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Hawks48c42,200$20,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,956.9959347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Hawks50c40,000$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,000.4140446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hawks48c40,000$19,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,8002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Hawks48c37,048$17,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,141.8856646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Mavericks52c30,865$15,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,907.641,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Hawks48c28,097$13,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,610.441,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hawks48c25,597$12,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,291.888,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Mavericks52c23,512$12,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,226.1511252.7%59 W · 53 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Mavericks52c20,000$10,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,399.991,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Hawks48c16,556$7,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,609.1231643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Hawks48c15,084$7,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,828.11,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Mavericks50c15,000$7,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,55045850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks48c14,694$6,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,709.859,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Mavericks53c14,395$7,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,579.4315349%75 W · 78 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Hawks49c11,095$5,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,658.4448343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Mavericks52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Mavericks52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Mavericks51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.9758449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0260…5f72backed Hawks48c8,333$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,333.331070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+34.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51c3…459fbacked Hawks48c7,917$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,116.67771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+46%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1333…e463backed Mavericks52c7,700$4,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0044438.6%17 W · 27 L-6.2wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-30.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Mavericks53c7,550$3,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,983.518361.4%51 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Mavericks51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0601,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Hawks48c5,505$2,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,862.7539842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Mavericks52c5,203$2,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,705.591,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Mavericks52c5,000$2,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,619.9980737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks49c4,896$2,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,507.686,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Hawks49c4,848$2,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,472.5869149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Hawks48c4,056$1,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,109.2519445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Mavericks52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08043348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Mavericks51c3,910$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.165750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Mavericks52c3,600$1,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,87233945.1%153 W · 186 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Mavericks50c3,333$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.514753.1%78 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Hawks47c3,322$1,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.621,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Mavericks52c3,284$1,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,703.884,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Hawks49c3,261$1,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,677.762,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Hawks48c2,800$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,45619147.6%91 W · 100 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x605d…cec3backed Mavericks53c2,453$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30015450.6%78 W · 76 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Hawks48c2,387$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.570246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6757…7ecebacked Hawks48c2,200$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1442548%12 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Hawks48c2,193$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.2759140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b0…4857backed Hawks48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.412157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Hawks48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.3331551.7%163 W · 152 L-1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Hawks49c2,059$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.8432150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6557…0999backed Hawks48c1,979$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.0813946.8%65 W · 74 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Mavericks52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00064944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93e7…cc0cbacked Mavericks53c1,887$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006352.4%33 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f3b…0cf9backed Mavericks52c1,733$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90022159.7%132 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bee…a369backed Hawks48c1,234$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.828148.1%39 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Hawks48c1,221$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.012,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Hawks48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.661,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea9e…4925backed Hawks48c1,004$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.48425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Hawks49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51023644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Mavericks51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51029149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eca…6a15backed Hawks48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5209742.3%41 W · 56 L-10.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Hawks48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52038750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Mavericks51c999.99$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.9926149.4%129 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Mavericks52c980.97$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.8522948.5%111 W · 118 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Mavericks52c961.52$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9924050.8%122 W · 118 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hawks48c957.65$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.982,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Mavericks53c942.84$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.4357650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Mavericks49c936.77$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.5414244.4%63 W · 79 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks45c936.25$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.654,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Hawks48c918.93$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.9323348.9%114 W · 119 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Hawks48c900$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4681,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Mavericks51c854.79$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.0724946.6%116 W · 133 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Mavericks55c849.99$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.498657%49 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3860…0efcbacked Hawks48c740.08$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.8412950.4%65 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36c0…5930backed Hawks48c698.77$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.365152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Hawks48c656.46$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.3617850%89 W · 89 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6870…5826backed Mavericks52c650.71$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.8754853.8%295 W · 253 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07d8…9f3fbacked Hawks48c579.17$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.173240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Hawks48c572.71$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.8629351.5%151 W · 142 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Hawks47c524.24$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.623,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Mavericks50c520$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2602,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e5…697abacked Mavericks47c515$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.6520650%103 W · 103 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Mavericks44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22042845.1%193 W · 235 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd744…526fbacked Mavericks52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2604443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Mavericks52c400$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.8566645.9%306 W · 360 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2271…8170backed Mavericks52c384.61$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018147%85 W · 96 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Hawks50c358.77$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.091,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Mavericks52c312$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.242,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0152…b455backed Hawks49c308.67$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.6766046.4%306 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Hawks48c306.55$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.3162844.9%282 W · 346 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Hawks63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11146346.4%215 W · 248 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb178…1fa0backed Mavericks53c283.54$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks52c279.85$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.223,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3100…9bc9backed Hawks48c275.25$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.1318043.3%78 W · 102 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe77b…f10abacked Hawks49c250.92$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.9710953.2%58 W · 51 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Mavericks53c236.49$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.348751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Mavericks52c226.14$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5592058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b73…45d9backed Mavericks53c212.36$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5534342.9%147 W · 196 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.