Fifa International · resolved market
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c7cfa78e6a36bd7a0b58377f8f5ea17534c6a72584cce451c4415f3234e77c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1622…d2aebacked Yes | 12c | 2,300$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 168 | 41.1%69 W · 99 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,203$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 850$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 20c | 305.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 181 | 39.8%72 W · 109 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa536…69b7backed Yes | 20c | 299.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…b445backed Yes | 18c | 270.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…6a2cbacked Yes | 21c | 257.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 20c | 230.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked Yes | 26c | 222$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 165 | 40.6%67 W · 98 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 80c | 206$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9f…523cbacked Yes | 18c | 177.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 11c | 166.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 160$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 16c | 141$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 144 | 36.1%52 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…c7f2backed No | 79c | 126.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…7225backed Yes | 17c | 115.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 9c | 111.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 17c | 110.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb7…fad0backed Yes | 11c | 107.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…1b8bbacked Yes | 20c | 101.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 20c | 92.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 87.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 13c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c0…01e0backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 78c | 74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 18c | 68.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 792 | 31.1%246 W · 546 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3e…403abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…18cfbacked Yes | 20c | 52.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 208 | 62%129 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brazil be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?this page
- Will Brazil be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will Brazil be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No won
- Will Brazil be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Brazil win the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.