Fifa International · resolved market
Will Brazil win the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x323ce8cc097a0832ce3e4ae14bc7ac902bddc2fc2394403eefd0f701a27ecdf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfde4…e3b1backed Yes | 9c | 4,608$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…8bb5backed Yes | 8c | 2,395$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 7c | 1,590$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 596.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 8c | 399.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a4…9a30backed Yes | 8c | 359.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58e…a0b0backed Yes | 14c | 355.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 5c | 281.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 8c | 249.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 248.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 167 | 4.2%7 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 6c | 208.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 8c | 181.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3e…403abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brazil win the World Cup?this page
- Will Brazil be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will Brazil be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No won
- Will Brazil be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Brazil be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.