Fifa International · resolved market
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group J?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae657a1fb4b6342a92d8879635406718e1a2c60db7512ff9d087bce3d2b6baa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 20c | 4,515$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.89 | 252 | 44.8%113 W · 139 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 80c | 4,500$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,758$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 9c | 1,025$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.58 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 17c | 1,023$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.83 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 5c | 629$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…c7f2backed No | 58c | 599.81$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.58 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65fe…911ebacked Yes | 19c | 587.75$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 556.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1258…4ac1backed Yes | 40c | 526.92$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…2443backed Yes | 42c | 515.01$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.76 | 350 | 41.1%144 W · 206 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 58c | 484.07$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.84 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a31…1164backed No | 70c | 389.96$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.01 | 186 | 36.6%68 W · 118 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes | 19c | 389.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.83 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…30abbacked Yes | 18c | 352.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 42c | 325$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.18 | 426 | 40.1%171 W · 255 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 15c | 285$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…4e63backed Yes | 29c | 275.27$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.15 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 238.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a0…2746backed Yes | 42c | 224.37$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 197 | 39.6%78 W · 119 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…3c7bbacked No | 79c | 221.44$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 195$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 180.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a1…e821backed No | 60c | 167.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Yes | 24c | 167.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7a…500cbacked No | 60c | 166.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5b…529abacked No | 63c | 152.7$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 20c | 145$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 59c | 143.76$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…d92dbacked Yes | 42c | 131.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Yes | 22c | 123.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa712…982cbacked Yes | 16c | 100.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154f…9a12backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 92.7$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 58c | 92.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 35c | 90.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 757 | 29.3%222 W · 535 L | -23.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 20c | 86.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 14c | 86.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed No | 58c | 85.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 25c | 82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 40c | 77.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 21c | 77.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f9…6f0fbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed Yes | 40c | 73.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Yes | 38c | 70.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 79c | 65.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 73c | 53.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 199 | 29.1%58 W · 141 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1246…785abacked Yes | 23c | 45.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 75c | 38.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 198 | 74.7%148 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 221 | 25.8%57 W · 164 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…954abacked Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 124 | 28.2%35 W · 89 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 62c | 28.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 512 | 50.4%258 W · 254 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a05…1c7abacked Yes | 41c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked No | 69c | 27.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 753 | 35.6%268 W · 485 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb5…8353backed Yes | 41c | 24.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 69c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 205 | 60%123 W · 82 L | +17.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group J?this page
- Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group C?No won
- Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group E?No won
- Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group F?No won
- Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group G?No won
- Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group H?Yes won
- Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group I?No won
- Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group K?No won
- Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group L?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.