Fifa International · resolved market
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group I?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb922831a85768df453c078fb6c2b242f4d7224a9b6d441941e39a31d788ee17b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb44e…c2c6backed No | 62c | 20,119$12,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,645.39 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 38c | 19,509$7,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,413.47 | 252 | 44.8%113 W · 139 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 76c | 1,383$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.76 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…2469backed Yes | 21c | 495.14$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.98 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 460.73$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.41 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed No | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f59…0be6backed Yes | 19c | 292.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a31…1164backed No | 56c | 279.16$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.52 | 186 | 36.6%68 W · 118 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c0…7d3abacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 240.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c2…1b0dbacked Yes | 44c | 227.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 67c | 224.19$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 63c | 222.43$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.7 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 36c | 202.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 212 | 39.6%84 W · 128 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked No | 74c | 175.83$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…8e54backed Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a1…850cbacked Yes | 24c | 166$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +318.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…8ba8backed Yes | 15c | 151.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7f…8373backed No | 66c | 150.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9559…4913backed Yes | 31c | 144.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…ec6fbacked Yes | 40c | 123.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3f…8922backed Yes | 39c | 115.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…a9ccbacked No | 78c | 102$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…395ebacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 61c | 85.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 76c | 83.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 157 | 40.8%64 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…1628backed Yes | 35c | 82.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 68c | 81.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 39c | 74.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed No | 63c | 70.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…5e79backed Yes | 22c | 65.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7d…0291backed Yes | 21c | 62.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbd…c75fbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 74c | 59.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf873…e627backed Yes | 38c | 53.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…16c3backed Yes | 23c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 36c | 52.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 52.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…4aa9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…7c71backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x605e…3aacbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…3c7bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1246…785abacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 38c | 48.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 757 | 29.3%222 W · 535 L | -23.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe01b…fa88backed No | 61c | 45.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 84 | 64.3%54 W · 30 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x368e…84e1backed Yes | 39c | 38.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 60.8%93 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 41c | 37.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…5ea3backed Yes | 39c | 36.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 58c | 35.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 342 | 49.1%168 W · 174 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…333fbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…e63dbacked Yes | 42c | 26.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2244…b9c2backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…be12backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685a…2f06backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2574…144bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0960…e987backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafa4…0dfebacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…e8f7backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 73c | 17.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 130 | 60.8%79 W · 51 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group I?this page
- Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group C?No won
- Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group E?No won
- Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group F?No won
- Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group G?No won
- Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group H?Yes won
- Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group J?No won
- Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group K?No won
- Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group L?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.