Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 13-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d9b14bf51093fb16034ca6218ff246c2f369b5d5e913bd475103dabb20d9d5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 78c | 8,198$6,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,835.54 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 2c | 6,176$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 2.4%2 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 67c | 6,023$4,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,971.4 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…d36fbacked Yes | 34c | 5,865$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf869…f264backed Yes | 34c | 4,000$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 1c | 3,283$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 5c | 2,111$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 22c | 1,804$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 13c | 1,710$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.4 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 40c | 1,040$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.95 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3769…2799backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8115…3622backed Yes | 3c | 700$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…c7f2backed Yes | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x834b…1fa7backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 33c | 431.65$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.41 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7671…353fbacked Yes | 31c | 323.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd32…c9c1backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…7677backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…6d1cbacked Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…badcbacked No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5054backed Yes | 11c | 202.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2440backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 68.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d5…ae7dbacked No | 70c | 64.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebcb…3e71backed Yes | 69c | 55.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…9ce9backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 13-19?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 13-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.