Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 13-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x143db7936a57004a203ab53e3260870dbecf9d7021ddea8036b0761ac556c9be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $281,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $283,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $281,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08f5…59a0backed Yes | 12c | 17,716$2,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,634.19 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 45c | 13,179$5,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,233.99 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 61c | 10,025$6,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,101.72 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 39c | 9,688$3,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,765.89 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 47c | 7,438$3,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,906.11 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 44c | 6,309$2,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,551.68 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 20c | 3,910$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,128.44 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…a748backed Yes | 25c | 3,031$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,270.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +234.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 17c | 3,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…0a14backed No | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 34c | 1,628$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.15 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 38c | 1,505$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.46 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 16c | 1,269$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.23 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 27c | 967.43$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.52 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe55a…e55ebacked Yes | 44c | 877.44$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 48c | 541$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.76 | 81 | 16%13 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x990c…5ccfbacked Yes | 38c | 500$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 19cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…828abacked No | 77c | 420.35$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…32a0backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…942abacked Yes | 31c | 380$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…944ebacked Yes | 65c | 377.95$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba0…cba6backed Yes | 29c | 373.34$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.07 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 31c | 323$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.87 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Yes | 26c | 262$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.98 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 256$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff3…d376backed No | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…9795backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 45c | 164.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…f144backed Yes | 29c | 140$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.8 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…886bbacked Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 27c | 93.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea70…f1c3backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…1e20backed No | 68c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49a9…e3dbbacked Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 22cpaid | +188.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 57c | 73.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7325…984fbacked No | 41c | 60.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed No | 62c | 54.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdae7…9a4dbacked Yes | 50c | 54.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada3…02e5backed Yes | 54c | 52.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a36…830bbacked Yes | 60c | 51.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 42c | 48.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9b91…8bc3backed Yes | 56c | 45.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…56d3backed Yes | 60c | 44.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…5409backed No | 45c | 44.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e844backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb17…bbc8backed No | 45c | 37.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…a1aebacked Yes | 57c | 32.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…b895backed No | 75c | 31.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…a932backed No | 46c | 28.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…1712backed Yes | 55c | 28.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fd…198fbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…cf1cbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 13-19?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 13-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.