Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 13-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77e9b67f670415f4f193eda537112d03a542062b9556dc3582d3a05fab450d62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 42c | 14,640$6,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,163.73 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 39c | 12,600$4,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,969.9 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 50c | 12,118$6,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,035.99 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd1…2365backed Yes | 62c | 11,698$7,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,446.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 55c | 9,170$5,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,089.14 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 43c | 6,150$2,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,501.39 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 38c | 5,280$2,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,273.6 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…59a0backed Yes | 22c | 4,472$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,488.16 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 49c | 2,465$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.24 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 18c | 1,900$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed Yes | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…5084backed No | 55c | 1,273$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 46c | 1,150$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.44 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe55a…e55ebacked Yes | 44c | 1,004$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.01 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 47c | 823.93$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.08 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 30c | 676.38$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.69 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…f144backed Yes | 52c | 540$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.1 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a92…dc69backed Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 54c | 486.46$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.29 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…20debacked Yes | 78c | 476.07$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.13 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…4e09backed Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +8.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 33c | 370.27$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.27 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7f…06eebacked Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…942abacked No | 44c | 210$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba0…cba6backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…df01backed Yes | 37c | 167.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…9b79backed Yes | 68c | 120.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 31cpaid | +351.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…48fabacked Yes | 36c | 110$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 50c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…6943backed No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 78c | 42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…b895backed No | 52c | 41.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8d…f369backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…7d7abacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 59c | 36.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…b2b5backed Yes | 36c | 30.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea2…fe7ebacked No | 70c | 28.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 73cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x386e…3463backed No | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fd…198fbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 13-19?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 13-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.