Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 13-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c5275e11c0343ebd494f6a70c6b95bc4d920ed84454bcda01877eaf3bc0f596
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $339,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $392,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $339,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 0c | 45,997$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 2c | 24,245$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 83 | 2.4%2 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…d36fbacked Yes | 60c | 23,269$14,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,000 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 1c | 19,930$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.02 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 77c | 10,491$8,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,427.97 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3769…2799backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 76c | 9,609$7,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350.21 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 59c | 9,080$5,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,726.82 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked No | 69c | 8,459$5,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,612.25 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 4c | 8,446$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 1c | 6,745$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 6,207$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 10c | 4,354$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.2 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae6…c165backed Yes | 2c | 4,200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…1b72backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…8fe3backed Yes | 1c | 2,384$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 11c | 1,700$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 60c | 1,700$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,645$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3da…3d6abacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23ad…0e14backed Yes | 3c | 1,429$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 74c | 1,351$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.35 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7f…06eebacked Yes | 28c | 1,008$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed Yes | 45c | 999.82$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.92 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 8c | 875.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 81 | 16%13 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe55a…e55ebacked No | 77c | 831.8$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb013…4a2bbacked Yes | 3c | 769.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…7607backed No | 56c | 757.48$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 34c | 736.84$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.46 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 2c | 700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd321…a77fbacked No | 55c | 700$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f29…523ebacked Yes | 4c | 481.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed No | 7c | 250$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked No | 77c | 187$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 9c | 151$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.96 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…48fabacked Yes | 49c | 150$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 64c | 119.61$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…7677backed Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bb…cb45backed Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd43…0699backed No | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…6cb0backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bf…1cccbacked Yes | 64c | 40.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3866…2d62backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…754cbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 75c | 33.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…9ce9backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…2a0fbacked Yes | 57c | 26.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…2c08backed No | 72c | 20.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…cabebacked No | 64c | 17.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 13-19?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 13-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.