Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 13-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08741949c92133b703743f6c7ed18f3e648dfe07f6de7f75aeb87d392ff42587
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $270,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $252,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb009…175bbacked Yes | 0c | 42,924$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…b44ebacked Yes | 3c | 17,014$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 15,400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 8c | 12,746$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.18 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe162…8a81backed Yes | 4c | 12,343$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…9017backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…59a0backed Yes | 3c | 9,533$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.96 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 1c | 9,041$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b00…8ea1backed Yes | 0c | 7,397$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 6c | 5,507$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 83 | 2.4%2 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x295d…accebacked Yes | 5c | 4,469$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 16c | 4,082$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.53 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,875$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,639$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 80c | 1,260$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,164$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.02 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…f144backed Yes | 15c | 1,103$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.66 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…2bf1backed No | 63c | 1,000$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f43…2fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 994.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8227…d504backed Yes | 8c | 987.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 1c | 776.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -8.8wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 3c | 666.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes | 5c | 657.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…1678backed Yes | 7c | 576.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…1b72backed No | 73c | 450$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 6c | 415.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…6cb0backed Yes | 5c | 280$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fc…766cbacked Yes | 10c | 208.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 20c | 193.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…a040backed Yes | 6c | 184.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…55e9backed Yes | 7c | 136.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…f863backed Yes | 23c | 132.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…c7f2backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6a…61f9backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 13-19?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 13-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.