Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 13-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74e7e66a0d5d515662f8dadeaf10a8d670ae2a75d03344afe961d70dbdb56cd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $284,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $255,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $284,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb009…175bbacked Yes | 0c | 35,917$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…59a0backed Yes | 5c | 22,162$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.72 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 13c | 15,754$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,994.91 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 13,399$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…9017backed No | 48c | 11,823$5,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,091.16 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 10c | 10,623$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.97 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Yes | 8c | 8,691$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.95 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 2c | 7,299$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.87 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3769…2799backed Yes | 1c | 6,938$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 27c | 6,881$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.25 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 7c | 6,102$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.74 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ba…c0eebacked No | 76c | 5,650$4,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 37c | 5,400$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,398 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed Yes | 2c | 3,852$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 5c | 2,153$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 10c | 2,007$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.38 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 49c | 2,000$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…cce8backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea70…f1c3backed Yes | 4c | 1,878$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b62…ad6cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,721$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 1,647$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…32a0backed Yes | 8c | 1,483$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 12c | 1,279$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,235$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3da…3d6abacked Yes | 4c | 1,178$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 7c | 1,111$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 83 | 2.4%2 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…b9f6backed Yes | 2c | 1,015$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -8.8wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…86efbacked Yes | 2c | 777$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 17c | 731.17$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.98 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 79c | 700$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a97…9e7bbacked Yes | 10c | 647.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df5…a632backed Yes | 10c | 589.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 25c | 561.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.47 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…9d0fbacked Yes | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 13c | 395.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f43…2fbdbacked Yes | 5c | 351.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 14c | 347.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b32…f53dbacked Yes | 6c | 322.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x990c…5ccfbacked Yes | 52c | 300$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 19cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0a…46aabacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 9c | 289.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf90…5a79backed Yes | 43c | 230.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2642…2bafbacked Yes | 16c | 223.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 217.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f41…e496backed Yes | 10c | 211.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ba…462ebacked Yes | 38c | 199.63$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 77c | 194.49$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…1aadbacked Yes | 51c | 186.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64de…25a1backed No | 67c | 136.95$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 15c | 130.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…942abacked Yes | 49c | 130$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…8938backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 25c | 79.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d9…81e5backed Yes | 42c | 62.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…ff2abacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…2704backed Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f29…523ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada3…02e5backed Yes | 33c | 51.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6a…61f9backed Yes | 40c | 49.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x093d…5aefbacked Yes | 24c | 49.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a92…dc69backed No | 72c | 47.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed Yes | 35c | 44.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 87 | 65.5%57 W · 30 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 13-19?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 13-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.