Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 13-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe36666290af7a4dd6f6ea34b730bdf01355982216ce961192c277f0402bad5d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $252,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $223,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08f5…59a0backed Yes | 10c | 47,329$4,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,776.76 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 35c | 18,146$6,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,818.67 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 78c | 13,714$10,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,636.05 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 21c | 10,140$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,040.38 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…9017backed No | 12c | 10,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 38c | 9,000$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,399.96 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 27c | 7,608$2,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,091.37 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 38c | 7,289$2,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,539.36 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…a748backed Yes | 13c | 4,995$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,355.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +234.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 30c | 4,631$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,238.94 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…32a0backed Yes | 15c | 3,296$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,796.17 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9b7bbacked No | 66c | 1,515$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 73c | 1,000$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x990c…5ccfbacked Yes | 9c | 700$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 19cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe55a…e55ebacked Yes | 31c | 532.99$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 7c | 516.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.63 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0061…548ebacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.19 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 34c | 396.75$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.37 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 45c | 375.87$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.14 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked Yes | 75c | 184.78$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 14c | 174.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.94 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 162.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.31 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcb…0521backed No | 66c | 160$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba0…cba6backed Yes | 36c | 142.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…ff2abacked No | 39c | 122.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…942abacked No | 23c | 96.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc887…869bbacked Yes | 34c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1275…1517backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 38c | 67.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…a1aebacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62a…e682backed Yes | 76c | 52.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…1e20backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 13-19?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 13-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.