Fifa International · resolved market
Will Argentina finish 2nd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a14121cb2232c14fe46b929151d2d83fe33843cd75d82f77a60fda8530b1aa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a05…0dc0backed No | 2c | 1,313$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4263…edb3backed Yes | 59c | 1,014$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 59c | 983$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.03 | 586 | 42.8%251 W · 335 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 41c | 800$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 58c | 558.32$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.91 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…891fbacked Yes | 26c | 460$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.4 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 15c | 410$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 130 | 60.8%79 W · 51 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 26c | 383.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed No | 40c | 364.02$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.61 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…0121backed Yes | 26c | 337.16$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.5 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a0…2746backed Yes | 58c | 327.59$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.59 | 197 | 39.6%78 W · 119 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 70c | 257.74$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.42 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 255.05$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 221 | 25.8%57 W · 164 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 21c | 246$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.42 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 60c | 240.32$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.21 | 792 | 31.1%246 W · 546 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…c7f2backed No | 42c | 238.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked No | 74c | 222$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.28 | 165 | 40.6%67 W · 98 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc68a…8cdebacked Yes | 30c | 220$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a31…1164backed No | 40c | 198.51$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 186 | 36.6%68 W · 118 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked No | 80c | 184$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.2 | 335 | 55.5%186 W · 149 L | +19.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…7076backed Yes | 60c | 167.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a1…e821backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7a…500cbacked Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…4e63backed No | 23c | 160$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 73c | 155$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 199 | 29.1%58 W · 141 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…d92dbacked No | 49c | 154.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 153.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 73c | 133.33$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.33 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed No | 40c | 128.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 118.31$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 484 | 38.2%185 W · 299 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 57c | 96.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…8a22backed No | 42c | 84.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…cf2dbacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +26%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51e…e386backed Yes | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1f…6465backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…954abacked Yes | 58c | 18.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 124 | 28.2%35 W · 89 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Argentina finish 2nd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will England finish 2nd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Spain finish 2nd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.