Fifa International · resolved market
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed3e2c12f5f036a27c43629f642641d2a4f6997f9592f9ff1d8aa3df8c5f480d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 14c | 4,739$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.83 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a31…1164backed No | 79c | 2,322$1,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.33 | 186 | 36.6%68 W · 118 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 19c | 1,771$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.43 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…6bfebacked Yes | 23c | 1,463$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.73 | 208 | 44.7%93 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 17c | 1,399$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.12 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x233c…4548backed Yes | 20c | 1,383$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +165%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 77c | 1,300$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.85 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 1,190$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.26 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…05b2backed Yes | 13c | 999.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…3595backed Yes | 14c | 961.79$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8957…2d9bbacked Yes | 25c | 915.37$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.28 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +6.1wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…2120backed Yes | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 76c | 770.06$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.81 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 22c | 667.47$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.84 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 78c | 656$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.76 | 698 | 26.1%182 W · 516 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…2273backed Yes | 17c | 640.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.35 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 77c | 608.9$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.24 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f9…6f0fbacked Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa712…982cbacked Yes | 23c | 490$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…ca7fbacked Yes | 21c | 471.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…e83fbacked Yes | 13c | 460$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…22f5backed Yes | 18c | 444.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 21c | 433.14$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 792 | 31.1%246 W · 546 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 398.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 16c | 376.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…d087backed Yes | 23c | 348.13$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0afd…0776backed No | 80c | 320$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a74…4af8backed Yes | 21c | 315$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 16c | 307.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed Yes | 18c | 277.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…cc3abacked Yes | 14c | 249.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…ca63backed Yes | 14c | 241.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 228.89$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 208 | 62%129 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…30abbacked Yes | 19c | 227.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c36…26bfbacked Yes | 20c | 220.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 77c | 219.18$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…c7f2backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked No | 78c | 199.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33c…a724backed Yes | 16c | 188$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e1…5536backed Yes | 19c | 184.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac6…5fb4backed Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc499…f793backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4af7…9842backed Yes | 20c | 147.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…9ce4backed Yes | 20c | 143.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…ee7abacked Yes | 15c | 129$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 14c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…6b5abacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad38…79eebacked Yes | 17c | 99.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…51dbbacked Yes | 15c | 85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 78.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 77c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 80c | 74.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 757 | 29.3%222 W · 535 L | -23.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…1b8bbacked Yes | 20c | 63.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d17…a671backed Yes | 19c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Yes | 19c | 55.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3a…3b17backed Yes | 20c | 55.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c63…23f1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…38d9backed Yes | 22c | 49.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb734…5f70backed Yes | 21c | 48.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 78c | 31.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 219 | 58%127 W · 92 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ba…1eabbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4123…4954backed No | 80c | 25.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 120 | 24.2%29 W · 91 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 80c | 21.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 326 | 39%127 W · 199 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 74c | 17.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 263 | 30%79 W · 184 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?this page
- Will France be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will France be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
- Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
- Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will France win the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.