Will France be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6aaa048f4225f09d2a9f66723c507522da0383e9cd860f1a744c6473fcb187b

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $94,445
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $78,385

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,445 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd914…0d9abacked Yes	18c	23,964$4,259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,259.46	80	28.8%23 W · 57 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7bd…ebcebacked Yes	22c	21,142$4,651 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,651.18	61	26.2%16 W · 45 L	-6.7wins	-0.11per pick	37cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9868…64b0backed Yes	18c	5,288$952 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$951.83	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5555…823bbacked Yes	22c	4,321$967 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$967.43	50	64%32 W · 18 L	+6.1wins	+0.12per pick	52cpaid	+45.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1622…d2aebacked Yes	18c	3,251$584 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$584.01	168	41.1%69 W · 99 L	+5.6wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe723…8104backed Yes	21c	2,278$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478.38	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.17per pick	39cpaid	-20%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf301…dd70backed Yes	21c	1,750$372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371.93	58	55.2%32 W · 26 L	+5.2wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fd8…ce32backed Yes	21c	1,274$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.48	133	30.1%40 W · 93 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Yes	21c	1,170$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.18	209	55.5%116 W · 93 L	+12.8wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5113…f0babacked Yes	22c	999.99$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	0%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcccc…05b2backed Yes	14c	999.98$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	40	45%18 W · 22 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0056…ee7abacked Yes	17c	958.32$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.99	81	24.7%20 W · 61 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8298…ab96backed Yes	23c	952.17$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-2.7wins	-0.17per pick	36cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked No	77c	952.17$733 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$219	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+3.1wins	+0.16per pick	54cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes	22c	535.92$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.9	51	19.6%10 W · 41 L	-5.0wins	-0.10per pick	29cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed Yes	22c	522$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.84	256	38.7%99 W · 157 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f33…914ebacked Yes	22c	512.76$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.81	152	40.8%62 W · 90 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No	78c	400$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88	185	45.9%85 W · 100 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac0…6112backed No	79c	384.91$304 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.83	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-12%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes	19c	363.26$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.15	589	26.8%158 W · 431 L	-30.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a74…4af8backed Yes	22c	315$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.3	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked No	78c	300$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa6b…8189backed No	79c	287.95$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.47	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed63…e1c6backed No	79c	253.16$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.16	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0164…9ed6backed Yes	21c	250$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	197	23.4%46 W · 151 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Yes	21c	250$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.2	70	51.4%36 W · 34 L	+6.4wins	+0.09per pick	42cpaid	+17%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x154d…c9e6backed No	79c	222.47$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.72	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes	11c	217.89$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.57	109	56.9%62 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1768…89e4backed Yes	23c	217.39$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	60	55%33 W · 27 L	+6.2wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0121…f722backed No	79c	211.08$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.85	236	44.9%106 W · 130 L	+11.7wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked No	77c	205.38$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.24	707	50.1%354 W · 353 L	+25.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes	16c	200.76$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.12	172	17.4%30 W · 142 L	-5.1wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd33c…a724backed Yes	14c	185$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.15	63	28.6%18 W · 45 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68cc…78e0backed Yes	12c	173.33$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.61	215	17.2%37 W · 178 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No	78c	172$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.94	208	62%129 W · 79 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes	15c	168.04$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.86	222	43.7%97 W · 125 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed Yes	16c	150$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	108	47.2%51 W · 57 L	-6.3wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes	17c	150$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	163	33.7%55 W · 108 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No	78c	150$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.5	232	45.7%106 W · 126 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1463…5ea7backed No	79c	143.04$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.04	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	70cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb610…71f4backed Yes	23c	134.78$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes	22c	132$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.04	226	23.5%53 W · 173 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	16c	131.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.45	438	35.8%157 W · 281 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb2…b26cbacked No	79c	126.58$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.58	44	61.4%27 W · 17 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	62cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes	20c	116.2$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.24	149	20.8%31 W · 118 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69cd…7c42backed Yes	22c	115$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef94…f8c4backed No	78c	106.74$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes	22c	104.13$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.91	72	44.4%32 W · 40 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cc1…560bbacked Yes	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf497…6a37backed No	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+102.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe27c…51dbbacked Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes	19c	97.72$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.57	320	44.1%141 W · 179 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…30abbacked Yes	22c	96.06$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.53	80	38.8%31 W · 49 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7b…8eaabacked Yes	16c	93.76$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5383…2294backed Yes	22c	90.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	33cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9d9…4c44backed Yes	22c	90.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked Yes	21c	80$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	698	26.1%182 W · 516 L	-21.7wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes	16c	75.39$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.21	76	39.5%30 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	17c	75$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xedee…67e6backed Yes	17c	74.19$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.28per pick	42cpaid	-53.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4cd…bc55backed Yes	15c	73.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	14cpaid	+59.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Yes	18c	70.54$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	145	53.8%78 W · 67 L	+9.1wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+12%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x79de…db49backed Yes	19c	63.84$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.28	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	+2.4wins	+0.07per pick	34cpaid	+153.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9163…0cabbacked Yes	17c	60$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	238	55.5%132 W · 106 L	+10.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed No	77c	60$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.65	254	43.7%111 W · 143 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes	23c	59$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	456	27.9%127 W · 329 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	+6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed No	78c	51.84$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.45	287	31%89 W · 198 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd88f…ca4ebacked Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	46	41.3%19 W · 27 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x539b…c64fbacked No	79c	46.95$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.86	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	-3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf58…8cccbacked No	78c	44.87$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.87	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.16per pick	54cpaid	+36.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No	79c	30$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.3	460	47.2%217 W · 243 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed No	79c	28.14$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.82	120	25%30 W · 90 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda81…d086backed No	79c	26.85$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.64	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.13per pick	58cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad48…3c41backed No	79c	25.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.41	14	78.6%11 W · 3 L	+1.8wins	+0.13per pick	66cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xed7e…7bf3backed No	79c	25.32$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.32	24	62.5%15 W · 9 L	+3.3wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c9f…c5dcbacked No	79c	22.97$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.82	11	90.9%10 W · 1 L	+2.4wins	+0.22per pick	69cpaid	+32%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3462…3dc2backed No	79c	22.28$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.68	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.19per pick	66cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58f5…47eebacked No	79c	18.99$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.99	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f78…657fbacked No	79c	15.25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.2	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e64…b99bbacked No	79c	13.53$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.84	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ba…258cbacked No	79c	13.51$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.84	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will France be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?this page
Will France be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No won
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?Yes won
Will France win the World Cup?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will France be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event