Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc1b024850de0aa2e90b579f22ee2dc45a25822ce4725fd94177db030e42c231
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4aa0…e20fbacked No | 6c | 7,758$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…7e95backed No | 0c | 7,455$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 4c | 3,514$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.94 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 0c | 3,397$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,710$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 4c | 1,651$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,472$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4622…8190backed No | 1c | 1,164$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391a…475fbacked No | 2c | 1,119$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 9c | 1,100$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +313.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed No | 5c | 1,029$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87b…ba58backed No | 8c | 1,005$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked No | 6c | 1,000$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…732cbacked No | 9c | 1,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4e…3cc1backed No | 5c | 961.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 7c | 920.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…e30bbacked No | 6c | 878.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed No | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 809.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 9c | 800$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…891ebacked No | 6c | 800$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 9c | 800$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 16cpaid | +134.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4455…99f2backed No | 3c | 755.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…fcfabacked No | 6c | 698.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 6c | 696.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765e…b9bbbacked No | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 7c | 661.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f47…d0b0backed No | 6c | 533.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ff…ae88backed No | 6c | 533.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cb…9f42backed No | 6c | 529.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x091d…2095backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 6c | 498.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70b…43fbbacked No | 6c | 491.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…3f67backed No | 7c | 407.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8a…8730backed No | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…a1ddbacked Yes | 13c | 389.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.55 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +53%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa247…2d32backed No | 8c | 389$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4990…d300backed No | 5c | 387.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 4c | 357.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602e…20d8backed No | 7c | 350$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e86…d278backed No | 6c | 344.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88da…15c6backed No | 5c | 312.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…affebacked No | 6c | 308.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 5c | 303.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1453…deebbacked No | 8c | 282.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…6badbacked No | 7c | 264$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 5c | 247$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed No | 8c | 240$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdf…f7d1backed No | 6c | 234.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc4…be57backed No | 5c | 214.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d9…639fbacked No | 5c | 213.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…ba55backed No | 6c | 200.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4a…be7ebacked No | 6c | 184.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked No | 6c | 179.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed No | 6c | 177$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…5d82backed No | 6c | 169.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fde…5ea1backed No | 6c | 167.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0d…bc18backed No | 6c | 164.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…1a36backed No | 76c | 84.12$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.