Commodities · resolved market
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf8ac11b1ad18e56052a6f3288696735671e9cb3acaed0760d67943c9897c43f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 64c | 2,424$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.68 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 1,799$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.95 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…dedfbacked Yes | 48c | 1,666$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 30c | 1,562$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.57 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 1,500$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.3 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 2c | 1,344$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…31adbacked Yes | 61c | 1,311$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.37 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 51c | 1,311$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.47 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 38c | 1,247$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 10c | 1,082$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.45 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 66c | 946.64$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.32 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…4f75backed Yes | 42c | 921.1$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 14c | 879.95$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.52 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…1c89backed Yes | 33c | 582.94$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +200.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d38…06c7backed No | 67c | 582.9$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 77c | 575$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.02 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 31c | 567.87$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.45 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 24c | 422.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +111%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 407$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.23 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 31c | 374$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.43 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede0…9f81backed No | 4c | 368.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 34c | 367.35$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.16 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…732cbacked No | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +141.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 270$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.79 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 41c | 249.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 23c | 228.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 15c | 199.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +11.0wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 24c | 187.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x031c…b73dbacked Yes | 34c | 168.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed No | 53c | 145$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 22c | 144.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.83 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…38d9backed Yes | 42c | 141.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 34c | 138.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.06 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 75c | 134.77$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 37c | 133.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.04 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 71c | 122.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 29c | 121$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 32c | 114.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.47 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 42c | 112$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…5ecbbacked Yes | 42c | 109.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 54c | 107.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 45c | 105$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 64c | 102.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 56c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x932a…bd8cbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 23c | 95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.94 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 91.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 33c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 71c | 78.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3c…4b3cbacked Yes | 20c | 76.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b19…6759backed Yes | 38c | 76.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 53c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8a…8730backed No | 29c | 71.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +179.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf2…f3c4backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 43c | 67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…261abacked Yes | 37c | 66.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 66.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked Yes | 38c | 66.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 73c | 66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8e…5ff9backed Yes | 32c | 62.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 47c | 61.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 55.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 54.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 63c | 53.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 66c | 53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d29…71c2backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf410…3ca1backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16eb…c7c7backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8f…ad42backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec3…e98dbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc265…50a0backed Yes | 35c | 45.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 53c | 45.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…b010backed Yes | 44c | 45.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…864cbacked Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…efd6backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…f810backed No | 72c | 41.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 72c | 39.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 46c | 37.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…10dabacked No | 61c | 37.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 56c | 36.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 60c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ca…bc04backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…101dbacked Yes | 39c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.7wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3dba…d44fbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…1108backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…62b9backed Yes | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 26.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?this page
- Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?No won
- Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?No won
- Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?No won
- Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.