Commodities · resolved market
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x448067cbd40d6a20f39b6ca24737bfe711059b251f8f7f1663ac8734cc6b9972
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 43c | 2,505$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.03 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40c9…664dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,288$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,408$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 1,152$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.2 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 1,087$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.31 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 71c | 1,084$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 44c | 1,006$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.39 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fb50backed Yes | 45c | 942$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.68 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xede0…9f81backed Yes | 2c | 934.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…4f75backed Yes | 42c | 921.06$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.39 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 21c | 804.15$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.39 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 54c | 576.32$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.63 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 575$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.86 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x031c…b73dbacked No | 52c | 550$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726a…200cbacked Yes | 44c | 533.39$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.33 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 16c | 518.01$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.83 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 61c | 412.92$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.48 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 374$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…b0febacked Yes | 43c | 352.96$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 45c | 351.71$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.61 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 41c | 343.88$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.06 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…e4b4backed No | 66c | 320.81$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…4c08backed No | 67c | 319$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed No | 60c | 314.98$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.54 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 48c | 273.96$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.09 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +11.0wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 6c | 219.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52cd…7eadbacked No | 79c | 214.97$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c7…ceebbacked No | 66c | 212$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.68 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 193.21$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.55 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bde…dff8backed No | 72c | 175.87$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 27c | 160$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 41c | 119.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 111.87$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed Yes | 46c | 110.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 109.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…c2c2backed Yes | 52c | 109$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…62b9backed Yes | 35c | 109$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…a817backed Yes | 20c | 107.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 32c | 101.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…b010backed Yes | 43c | 100.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1819…5b1bbacked Yes | 30c | 100.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 32c | 100.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932a…bd8cbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 33c | 95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 91.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 56c | 89.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 46c | 88.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 72c | 78.87$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…261abacked Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…38d9backed Yes | 44c | 76.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked Yes | 34c | 74.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…19f8backed Yes | 38c | 68.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…649fbacked Yes | 47c | 67.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 66c | 66.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 66.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 27c | 61.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 69c | 61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404e…a0d3backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 58.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 55.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 45c | 54.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 53c | 46.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 46.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 184 | 40.2%74 W · 110 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb759…8693backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…b99bbacked Yes | 44c | 44.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 37c | 44.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf2…f3c4backed Yes | 46c | 43.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 57c | 40.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…f810backed No | 71c | 39.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…f87dbacked No | 71c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8f…ad42backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d43…43a7backed No | 59c | 31.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34e…bb55backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…87e1backed Yes | 47c | 28.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…312bbacked No | 57c | 28.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked Yes | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…dcd8backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 53c | 24.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 68c | 22.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…bff5backed No | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 51c | 20.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?this page
- Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?Yes won
- Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?No won
- Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?No won
- Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.