Commodities · resolved market
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9221a5cc6660da21bfb7b36be86f1bd61df5a50196ea6ebdebfa14d257fb714d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 0c | 9,733$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 9c | 5,065$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.09 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fb50backed Yes | 5c | 2,677$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.66 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 53c | 1,435$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.46 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 77c | 1,176$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.11 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,003$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.67 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 12c | 718.31$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.31 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 5c | 704.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 4c | 645.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 7c | 601.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 39c | 596.09$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.4 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 565.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa140…5531backed Yes | 6c | 504.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed Yes | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…e792backed Yes | 49c | 409.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 365.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 354.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…3d3bbacked Yes | 13c | 336.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…38d9backed Yes | 10c | 336$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…11d4backed Yes | 4c | 327.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 22c | 323$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…79e0backed Yes | 26c | 283.16$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16eb…c7c7backed Yes | 9c | 283.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 11c | 222$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f25…940dbacked Yes | 18c | 207.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda8e…3edfbacked Yes | 50c | 206$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 50c | 190$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 76c | 146$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…7fe5backed Yes | 12c | 145$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…2913backed Yes | 14c | 145$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd92…3482backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d85…0d82backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7181backed Yes | 40c | 126.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 11c | 121.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Yes | 13c | 117.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 35c | 113.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7221…82e7backed Yes | 25c | 94.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed No | 62c | 93.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…5723backed Yes | 41c | 89.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0aa…13b3backed Yes | 15c | 86.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 15c | 79.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…2150backed No | 64c | 59.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…b010backed Yes | 22c | 55.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…1db9backed No | 51c | 53.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 49.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…0de0backed No | 63c | 47.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 65c | 43.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3c…4b3cbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79b0…5a87backed Yes | 38c | 26.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf2…f3c4backed No | 77c | 26.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 22.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8f…ad42backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…bf12backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…c1e3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…6237backed No | 58c | 19.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked No | 73c | 16.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?this page
- Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?No won
- Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?Yes won
- Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?No won
- Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.