Middle East · resolved market
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb8a519f4d8c10c3e60c5c604cac30f38341e4b35f5bcce8356c0ea4698f8952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f4e…49c8backed Yes | 56c | 17,726$9,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,884 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…073bbacked No | 80c | 7,989$6,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,598.01 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec6…33f2backed No | 79c | 7,138$5,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,506.79 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 9c | 6,657$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,063.13 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00b…cd54backed Yes | 21c | 4,664$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc442…8d9cbacked Yes | 21c | 3,797$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 7c | 1,922$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.8 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…adf8backed Yes | 25c | 1,805$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.2 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…aa14backed No | 75c | 1,743$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.11 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…9a3fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,411$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.11 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1db…838dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,256$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.21 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e4…0e85backed Yes | 18c | 1,209$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…87f0backed Yes | 19c | 1,165$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…40e8backed Yes | 7c | 1,137$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72de…a5edbacked Yes | 27c | 731.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 721.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 694.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 7c | 672.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.56 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 9cpaid | +307.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…3eb3backed Yes | 8c | 668.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e0…53e6backed Yes | 15c | 667.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 79c | 651.03$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.47 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51a2…051bbacked Yes | 9c | 577.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a89…9783backed Yes | 13c | 556.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.21 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 538.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…732cbacked No | 22c | 500$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.60per pick | 20cpaid | +329.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 71c | 494$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.26 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 4c | 466.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 3c | 435.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb454…9b90backed No | 77c | 391.27$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 63c | 348.5$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.48 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…a864backed No | 55c | 343$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.35 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 14c | 339.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…f4ffbacked Yes | 14c | 321.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 17c | 307.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…3348backed Yes | 13c | 299.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 12c | 241.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 9c | 230.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…cfe8backed Yes | 7c | 221.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 15c | 220.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fc…ed09backed Yes | 6c | 176.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 10c | 174.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 74c | 162.83$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 8c | 158.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…a89bbacked Yes | 15c | 147.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes | 10c | 146.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5115…9004backed Yes | 44c | 142.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 15c | 138.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 11c | 128.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed No | 68c | 122.03$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…918dbacked Yes | 33c | 117.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes | 13c | 109.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 66c | 94.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0411…3ecdbacked No | 64c | 80.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0b…422dbacked No | 75c | 66.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf03…6aeabacked No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcb…e811backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b8…479cbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 20c | 49.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb10f…56f4backed No | 72c | 41.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…262fbacked No | 74c | 39.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.