TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$278,058
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$273,665

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $278,058 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbe4e…d0c6backed Yes6c19,661$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f19…3c1fbacked Yes7c12,091$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c8,929$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.94140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes0c8,832$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5913714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes4c3,644$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.15414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62da…326dbacked Yes1c3,137$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes5c2,901$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.72728.3%6 W · 66 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes13c2,526$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.2218425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcecf…e206backed Yes4c2,381$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed Yes44c2,334$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.229958.6%58 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15fd…cc95backed Yes5c2,182$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x612f…9abcbacked Yes5c2,140$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae79…9161backed Yes5c2,113$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c2,074$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.29765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes5c2,011$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.55210%0 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes16c1,898$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.514935.6%53 W · 96 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93e6…b5afbacked Yes5c1,888$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes12c1,753$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.0660%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c1,640$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.95787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes7c1,621$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.26425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+224.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,566$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.261,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5faf…6694backed No55c1,505$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12a2…0e71backed Yes65c1,499$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed No76c1,408$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.062934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+88.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x662a…77b7backed No56c1,362$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.76650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No66c1,355$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.9141238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5011…220ebacked Yes3c1,343$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d17…f3adbacked Yes24c1,335$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.58333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+303%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a2d…5cf2backed Yes4c1,280$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed Yes48c1,271$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.71520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed Yes20c1,252$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-32.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c13…c9c5backed Yes57c1,131$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No57c945.25$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.767167.6%48 W · 23 L+9.6wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+41.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked No44c936.69$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.11540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes38c885.44$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.122025%5 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes8c875.86$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0390%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes2c870.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1650%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b0b…05b9backed Yes27c795.79$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Yes59c779.03$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes3c761.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.77812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick4cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes43c747.64$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.13195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-87.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes13c674.32$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.161060%6 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+155.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x404a…9bf5backed Yes48c603.54$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes11c600$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1718725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e60…06a2backed Yes19c600$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb2…bd48backed Yes5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x628b…e756backed Yes4c567.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes5c534.95$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.87319.7%3 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed Yes7c520.18$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1870%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes4c505.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.52025%5 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No63c500.87$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.113341.4%55 W · 78 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18f…294cbacked Yes16c500$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.242832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No61c477.71$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.121952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1399…3586backed Yes4c462.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2222…f221backed Yes4c413.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked Yes3c400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18d2…a67dbacked Yes47c382.18$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0787…0ca3backed Yes25c380$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe823…2a61backed Yes14c366.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes4c356.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9611529.6%34 W · 81 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x823e…fc4fbacked Yes3c350$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa173…3315backed No66c337.66$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.19785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.38per pick47cpaid+165.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes6c337.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203721.6%8 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+21.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e6…eebabacked Yes32c309.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c23…91debacked Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+78.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed Yes13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394226.2%11 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-45.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21eb…a9fdbacked Yes4c300$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c0…6a9bbacked Yes13c290.43$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x35a4…7b85backed No57c273.04$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.2633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No35c245.25$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.645942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes61c239.75$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No49c235.12$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.96955.1%38 W · 31 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+8.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf05…8b29backed No77c233$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c221.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.671428.5%12 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x463e…fa8ebacked Yes31c210$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked No42c203.33$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.936357.1%36 W · 27 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+59.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4392…68c3backed No76c203$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.86988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick65cpaid+40.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes9c200.81$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.95425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e3e…ea35backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1762…c890backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa016…b2e2backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…a241backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e8e…4cacbacked Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-57.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf25c…732cbacked Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcf8…94b6backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed No67c199.99$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd524…2accbacked No66c199.99$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.99366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae31…7fa1backed No39c199.94$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb48…17d7backed Yes7c197.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes32c189.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618643%37 W · 49 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e90…a79ebacked Yes32c179.31$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7288…9ec5backed Yes23c174.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd7…f473backed No56c172.07$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb2e…e2a2backed No56c170$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+47.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8604…fd3abacked Yes50c168.07$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ac…e69bbacked Yes12c165.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes54c164.01$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.141030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbcd3…1a5abacked No52c158.34$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No51c154.62$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.346832.4%22 W · 46 L-8.1wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xac7a…414fbacked No45c150$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.